Anthropic signs a major lease deal with TeraWulf, boosting the bitcoin-miner-turned-GPU-cloud operator's revenue density by 27%.

TeraWulf Inc. climbed roughly 7% on Monday as B. Riley Securities raised its price target to $40 from $32, with analyst Nick Giles maintaining a Buy rating. The move stood out against a modest market backdrop—bitcoin rose less than 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.21% on AI-related strength. Investors appeared to view TeraWulf primarily as an infrastructure play rather than a bitcoin proxy.

TeraWulf underperformed its data-center peers but outpaced bitcoin by approximately six percentage points, tracking closely with IREN. The long-term appeal centers on the company's lease economics. Anthropic's 20-year agreement generates approximately $2.37 million per critical megawatt annually, compared to roughly $1.86 million per critical megawatt from Fluidstack's leases. This translates to revenue density roughly 27% higher for Anthropic, though this does not necessarily imply stronger underlying margins—calculations omit discounting, escalators, construction costs, and delivery schedules. Fluidstack's leases are backed by a $3.2 billion guarantee from Google, which offsets the lower revenue density.

The three major customer agreements represent approximately $26.8 billion in initial-term revenue, or around $1.73 billion annualized. However, recognized revenue will arrive significantly later: Fluidstack deliveries extend through 2026, while Anthropic begins in 2027 and reaches full capacity by early 2028.

WULF fell 4.3% between July 24 and July 31, with Monday's gain offsetting that week's decline. B. Riley's $40 target implies roughly 112% upside from Monday's opening price; the firm characterized the recent pullback in AI-infrastructure stocks as overdone.

TeraWulf will report results on August 5 at 8:00 a.m. EDT. Zacks projects revenue of $44.71 million—a 6.2% year-over-year decline but 31.5% sequential growth. CFO Patrick Fleury previously described the opening quarter as reflecting "a more stable, contracted revenue model." Investors will focus on Fluidstack rental commencements, delivery timelines, capital expenditure guidance, and updates on the Abernathy stake sale.

Near-term risks include substantial near-term costs: first-quarter interest expense reached $67.1 million and stock-based compensation $101.4 million. Major projects remain subject to construction completion and customer approval, with delays, cost overruns, or additional dilution capable of offsetting contract value gains.