Bernstein Research projects that Samsung will gain HBM (high-bandwidth memory) market share, maintaining a 440,000 won stock price target.

Samsung Electronics is emerging as Bernstein's preferred memory chip supplier, with the brokerage expecting the South Korean technology giant to gain market share in high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Bernstein maintained its 440,000 won price target on Samsung Electronics while keeping an Outperform rating, with analyst Mark Li noting that the firm continues to prefer Samsung among established memory suppliers as recent industry data points to improving momentum in its HBM business.

The outlook reflects demand for advanced memory closely tied to the AI infrastructure boom. HBM has become particularly important because the technology is used alongside advanced AI processors to handle large amounts of data at high speeds.

Bernstein's preference for Samsung reflects export data from July and August that provided stronger signals for Samsung than for rival SK Hynix. Signals from the location associated with SK Hynix's HBM production were comparatively weaker. "We still prefer Samsung among the incumbent suppliers," Li wrote.

Bernstein maintained Outperform ratings on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, while retaining an Underperform rating for Kioxia. However, the brokerage reduced its price target for SK Hynix to 2.7 million won from 3.3 million won, reflecting more conservative assumptions surrounding the company's HBM progress and future pricing.

Samsung's ability to capture additional HBM market share could become increasingly important as AI chipmakers demand larger quantities of advanced memory. The company has spent recent years working to strengthen its position in HBM after facing intense competition from SK Hynix and other suppliers.

Supply challenges surrounding HBM4 have prompted Bernstein to slightly delay its expected transition away from the current HBM3E generation. HBM4 represents the next major generation of high-bandwidth memory and is expected to play an important role in future AI accelerators. Any slower transition could extend the commercial importance of HBM3E while affecting pricing and profitability assumptions across major memory manufacturers. Bernstein now expects HBM to remain less profitable than conventional DRAM during 2027.

That assessment is notable because soaring AI demand has made HBM one of the most closely watched areas of the semiconductor market. Investors have increasingly focused on which suppliers can expand production while meeting the demanding technical requirements of next-generation AI systems.

Bernstein expects conventional memory prices to increase by roughly the mid-teens to 20% during the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, with another high-single-digit increase expected during the fourth quarter. Supply shortages are also expected to persist into 2027. However, long-term agreements between suppliers and customers may place limits on how far prices can rise, preventing manufacturers from capturing the full benefit of exceptionally tight supply conditions.

Bernstein expects the memory cycle to begin normalizing in 2028 as additional manufacturing capacity enters the market. AI investment could also face constraints from higher borrowing costs and environmental concerns surrounding rapid infrastructure expansion. As those pressures develop, the firm expects supplier profitability to retreat from exceptional peak levels, with gross margins reaching around 90% at their peak before easing into the high 70% range by the end of 2028.

Bernstein raised its price target for Kioxia to 49,000 yen from 40,000 yen, reflecting a stronger outlook for NAND pricing, but nevertheless maintained its Underperform rating, pointing to a larger-than-expected competitive threat from Chinese memory manufacturer YMTC. The brokerage kept its Micron price target at $1,300 and its SanDisk target at $3,000.

For Samsung, the central question is whether improving HBM momentum can translate into meaningful market share gains as the industry moves toward HBM4. Bernstein's latest assessment suggests the company is increasingly well positioned for that competition, even as the broader memory market approaches another eventual normalization cycle.