분석가 평가에 따르면 HBM(고대역폭 메모리) 수요와 NAND 가격이 Micron 메모리칩 사업 사이클을 좌우할 것으로 보입니다.

Micron Technology enters fiscal 2026's fourth quarter with an unusually strong operating base for a memory-cycle recovery. Fiscal Q3, ended May 29, 2026, delivered revenue of $41.456 billion—up 74% sequentially and 346% year over year—according to its June 24 financial results presentation. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 84.9%, non-GAAP operating income $33.68 billion, and non-GAAP diluted EPS $25.11.

Data center memory demand tied to AI infrastructure is driving this performance. Micron reported data center revenue exceeding $25 billion in fiscal Q3, representing an annualized run rate above $100 billion. Data center SSD revenue exceeded $5 billion and more than doubled sequentially. Management confirmed that DRAM and NAND industry demand continues to significantly exceed supply, with tight conditions expected to persist beyond calendar 2027 due to AI-driven demand and structural supply constraints.

HBM4 stands as the strategic centerpiece. Micron said its HBM4 12-high volume ramp is tracking twice as fast as its HBM3E 12-high ramp, with the company having shipped more than $1 billion in HBM4 revenue to date. However, HBM growth creates a broader dynamic: rising HBM production consumes capacity that could otherwise support conventional DRAM output. This capacity pressure could support pricing across the wider DRAM portfolio if customer demand remains strong.

The revenue composition underscores why both DRAM and NAND merit investor focus. DRAM revenue was $31.328 billion, representing 76% of total revenue, while NAND revenue was $9.943 billion, or 24%. DRAM revenue grew 67% sequentially; NAND revenue grew 99%. DRAM average selling prices rose in the low-60% range quarter over quarter, with NAND average selling prices rising in the mid-80% range—figures that contradict claims of NAND weakness and position NAND pricing as material to company-wide margins.

Micron's business units show broad participation in the cycle. Cloud Memory Business Unit revenue was $13.769 billion (33% of total, 83% gross margin), Core Data Center Business Unit was $11.524 billion (28% of total, 87% gross margin), Mobile and Client Business Unit was $11.521 billion (28% of total, 87% gross margin), and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit was $4.634 billion (11% of total, 79% gross margin). This unusually high margin profile across all units signals that the cycle extends well beyond isolated product lines.

Capital generation and allocation reinforce the story. Micron generated $25.39 billion of GAAP cash from operations and $18.3 billion of adjusted free cash flow in fiscal Q3, ending the quarter with $32.2 billion of liquidity. The company projected fiscal Q4 capital expenditures of approximately $10 billion, bringing full-year fiscal 2026 capex to about $27 billion net of anticipated government incentives. Management flagged that fiscal 2027 quarterly capex is expected to exceed fiscal Q4 levels, with more than half the year-over-year increase attributed to construction capex.

Strategic customer agreements represent a structural shift. Micron has completed 16 SCAs spanning data center, consumer, and automotive segments, covering roughly 20% of DRAM volume and one-third of NAND volume over the agreement periods. The company noted that 14 of the 16 agreements carry cumulative minimum-price revenue commitments of approximately $100 billion over their remaining terms, with $22 billion in cash deposits and related financial commitments under the signed agreements. If these commitments hold, they could materially reduce earnings volatility relative to historical memory cycles.

For fiscal Q4 2026, Micron guided for non-GAAP revenue of $50.0 billion (plus or minus $1.0 billion), non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 86%, operating expenses of about $1.65 billion, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $31.00 (plus or minus $1.00). Key investor focus should center on whether the company confirms continued tight demand in both DRAM and NAND, whether HBM4 production scales without margin pressure, and whether capex discipline remains intact as capacity expands.