Wolfe Research estimates Broadcom could capture $200 billion in AI revenue by 2028, driven by custom silicon, high-speed switching fabric, and interconnect demand.

Broadcom has quietly positioned itself at the center of a massive AI infrastructure financing machine. Wolfe Research now estimates that this positioning could be worth up to $200 billion in revenue by 2028.

The estimate stems from Broadcom's involvement in XPV, a newly established AI infrastructure financing vehicle created in partnership with Apollo and Blackstone. The platform is designed to support over 20 gigawatts of compute capacity by 2028, with an initial focus on powering Anthropic's AI ambitions.

Wolfe's analysis, dated August 13, 2026, breaks the projection down with specificity. Of the 20-plus gigawatts of planned capacity, roughly 14 GW could be tied to OpenAI and Anthropic. At a projected cost of $10 billion to $15 billion per gigawatt, that translates to $140 billion to $200 billion in potential revenue for Broadcom.

To put that in perspective, Broadcom's total consensus revenue for 2028 sits at around $245 billion. If the upper end of Wolfe's AI estimate materializes, it would mean AI alone accounts for more than 80% of the company's entire top line.

This growth trajectory is not unprecedented. Wolfe's earlier analysis from January 30, 2026 projected Broadcom's AI ASIC revenue at roughly $44 billion in 2026 and $78.4 billion in 2027, showing a steep growth curve that makes the 2028 figures look like a natural extension. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan has added fuel to this trajectory by publicly stating a line of sight to over $100 billion in AI semiconductor revenue for fiscal 2027 alone.

Part of what gives Wolfe confidence is the scaling of Google's Tensor Processing Unit program. The firm's January estimates indicated Google's TPU shipments reaching approximately 3.3 million units in 2026, climbing to 5.1 million in 2027, and potentially hitting 7 million annually by 2028. Broadcom designs the custom silicon behind Google's TPUs, making this scaling trajectory a direct revenue driver.

Not everything in the Wolfe report reads like a growth story. Broadcom has committed to guaranteeing $30 billion in residual value on a $36 billion initial tranche dedicated to 1 gigawatt of Anthropic infrastructure, targeted for delivery by mid-2026. Wolfe doesn't seem panicked about this risk, at least not yet. The firm points to physical constraints at foundries like TSMC that should prevent a chip oversupply scenario through 2028. Still, the report acknowledges that industry-wide backstops, where chipmakers guarantee infrastructure value, could create compounding risk exposure if multiple companies face writedowns simultaneously.

Wolfe values Broadcom at approximately 20 times consensus earnings per share for 2027 in its analysis of these financing risks.

For the bull case to play out, two things need to hold. First, AI compute demand from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google needs to keep accelerating at roughly the current pace. Second, the infrastructure Broadcom is helping finance needs to retain its value over multi-year time horizons.

The bear case is simpler: AI training costs could decline faster than expected as efficiency improves, leaving expensive infrastructure stranded. If next-generation chips deliver the same performance at lower power requirements, 20 gigawatts of capacity could prove excessive. And that $30 billion guarantee would shift from theoretical risk to very real liability.