ASML 2026 EUV pipeline points to 45% revenue jump as analysts circle the stock.
ASML's plan to ship roughly 65 low-NA EUV systems in 2026 implies segment revenue growth of more than 45 percent year-on-year—a figure that provides investors with a concrete anchor for the company's medium-term trajectory. That forward visibility has drawn fresh attention from the sell side. Goldman Sachs added the stock to its European conviction list in late July, and Bernstein followed in early August by naming ASML its top pick for the third quarter. Shares closed Friday at €1,590.00, down 1.0 percent on the day but up 5.4 percent across the trading week.
The production schedule is only part of a broader expansion story. ASML intends to raise manufacturing capacity for low-NA EUV and DUV immersion tools by roughly 30 percent in 2027 compared with 2026, and is evaluating a further increase of similar magnitude for 2028. The phased approach suggests management sees sustained demand for leading-edge chipmaking equipment rather than a cyclical spike.
A recent customer milestone reinforces this thesis. Intel Foundry has moved a portion of its Core Ultra Series 3 processors—codenamed Panther Lake—into high-volume manufacturing using ASML's high-NA EUV technology on 18A process layers at its Oregon facility. The yields reportedly match those of established NXE systems, providing ASML with validation that its multi-billion-euro investment in next-generation lithography is translating into real-world production.
ASML's upgraded full-year outlook frames the current momentum. The company now expects net sales between €43 billion and €45 billion for 2025, with a gross margin of 54 to 56 percent—the second upward revision since early July. For the third quarter, management has guided to revenue of €11 billion to €12 billion and a gross margin of 55 to 57 percent. The second quarter delivered net sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion, translating to earnings per share of €7.59, with gross margin at 54.0 percent—both figures exceeding the company's projections.
Cash generation remains robust enough to fund capacity expansion and shareholder returns. ASML repurchased approximately €1.1 billion of shares during the second quarter under its 2026–2028 buyback program and paid an interim dividend of €1.88 per share on August 5. The combination underscores the free cash flow the business is currently producing.
Not every recent development has been favorable. News from roughly two weeks ago that China had begun producing its own DUV lithography equipment sparked discussion, yet the stock has risen 11.9 percent since—suggesting investors do not view the development as an immediate threat to ASML's competitive position. Similarly, a class-action lawsuit filed more than a month ago has done little to dent the rally; shares are up 140.6 percent since that filing became public.
The stock has gained 73 percent since the start of the year and sits 9.0 percent below its 52-week high of €1,748.00. While the run has narrowed valuation headroom, operating fundamentals continue to support the multiple. The next test arrives on October 14, when ASML reports third-quarter results.