Anthropic signed major capacity lease with TeraWulf, with deal structure implying 28% revenue premium per megawatt.

TeraWulf closed Friday at $18.46, down 7.9%, though the stock rose 1.7% over the prior week. Shares remain 16.9% below their July 6 close, which immediately followed the announcement of TeraWulf's $19 billion Anthropic lease.

The gap between strong customer demand and deferred construction cash flow defines the current trade. Under the lease structure, rent begins only upon delivery of each phase, with initial capacity due in late 2027 and the full 401 megawatts expected by early 2028.

A preliminary base-term calculation values the Anthropic contract at $2.37 million per megawatt-year, exceeding selected recent agreements. This calculation divides disclosed base-term value by years and megawatts on an undiscounted basis, excluding renewals and not measuring profit, cash timing, or present value. The Anthropic rate is 27.6% above Hut 8's second Beacon Point lease and at least 28% above TeraWulf's earlier Fluidstack contracts, though these agreements differ in structure, escalators, services, and delivery schedules. TeraWulf's Fluidstack agreements, for instance, include annual escalators and power-related charges.

"The Anthropic lease validates our strategy and establishes a long-duration revenue stream," Chief Executive Paul Prager said at announcement. Anthropic's payment obligations are expected to carry investment-grade backing, according to TeraWulf's regulatory filing.

TeraWulf separately agreed to sell its 50.1% Abernathy venture stake for approximately $530 million—roughly an 18% gross premium over its disclosed $450 million investment. Payments are staged: $250 million within 14 days, $150 million by December 31, and approximately $130 million by April 30, 2027.

First-quarter results illustrated the capital intensity: HPC supplied 62% of revenue while investing cash outflow reached $712.8 million. Cash and restricted cash totaled $3.09 billion on March 31. Subsequent equity sales raised approximately $1.23 billion gross, strengthening funding capacity but expanding the share count.

Market context: CoreWeave lost 11.4% Friday while IREN Limited fell 8.7%; TeraWulf's decline was smaller. Over the week, IREN gained 10.3% while CoreWeave slipped 1.8%, with TeraWulf finishing between them.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, when borrowing-cost expectations could move capital-heavy AI infrastructure stocks. TeraWulf's second-quarter earnings call follows August 5 at 08:00 EDT, where investors will seek updated cash, capital-spending, and construction figures alongside confirmation of the first Abernathy payment.

Construction delays, power constraints, financing costs, or permit changes could reduce project returns, while further equity issuance would dilute existing holders. The lease economics look strong; the next rerating needs proof of delivery.