머스크가 삼성과 SK의 메모리 반도체 가격 책정을 비판했으나, 한 전문가는 이러한 비판이 시장 논리에 어긋난다고 말했다.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk's latest criticism of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix over their memory chip pricing defies market realities, because any chipmaker that undercuts prevailing prices risks selling out immediately and leaving other customers without supplies, a prominent U.S. chip analyst said.

Jim Handy, founder and general director of semiconductor research firm Objective Analysis, challenged Musk's recent description of the Korean chipmakers' prices as "extortionate," compared with those of their U.S. rival Micron. He stressed that memory prices are determined by market forces rather than individual suppliers.

"Memory makers do not set their parts' pricing — the market determines the pricing," Handy said in a written interview with The Korea Times on Sunday. "In that light, it is hard to understand Musk's comment."

Musk is looking to manufacture chips in-house through his Terafab project, and soaring memory prices are an increasingly pressing concern for his ambitions. On Tuesday (local time), he posted on X: "Micron has been reasonable regarding future memory prices, while others have been extortionate, which is something today's customers will not forget."

He did not name the "others." However, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron are the world's top three memory chipmakers. Given Musk's influence in the technology industry, his public criticism carries significant weight and can reverberate across the semiconductor market.

Handy argued that if one memory supplier priced its products below competitors, it would quickly sell its inventory to the first buyers, leaving it without enough chips to fill orders from other customers.

"All DRAM makers want to keep their customers happy, but if one of them were to charge less than the others, they would immediately sell out to the first bidder, and would have no product to ship to their other customers," he said.

His remarks point to the supply constraints underpinning the current memory upcycle, even as the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure raises questions about how long elevated prices and profit margins can last.

Handy said the global DRAM and NAND flash markets are both being driven by severe supply shortages stemming from unexpectedly rapid growth in AI spending. Even if manufacturers accelerate capacity expansion, he does not expect supply to catch up with demand before 2029, assuming AI investment continues to grow as projected.

However, Handy expects the booming memory chip market to lose steam once AI spending slows suddenly.

"Given that hyperscale datacenters are not seeing a return on their capital spending, it is likely that this spending will slow, but it is impossible to know when that might happen," Handy said.

The longer-term competitive threat, however, may come from China, where domestic memory manufacturers are expanding production with government backing and pursuing technologies that could narrow the gap with established suppliers, according to Handy.

ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which produces DRAM, and Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), a NAND flash maker, are already reshaping the competitive landscape across the global memory industry. Both are part of Beijing's drive to reduce dependence on foreign semiconductor suppliers, with government direction and subsidies supporting their expansion.

CXMT's aggressive entry into the DDR4 market in 2023 was significant enough to prompt the three largest DRAM makers to abandon the segment, Handy said. This shows that Chinese manufacturers can disrupt established market dynamics even before they match the technological capabilities of industry leaders.

The threat could extend to high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a critical component in AI accelerators. CXMT has said it intends to develop HBM, although it has yet to bring a product to market.

Handy pointed to the company's recent announcement of its "4F square" DRAM cell design, which could help it work around restrictions stemming from China's limited access to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment. The U.S. has blocked exports of ASML's EUV systems to China since 2019, making it impossible for Chinese buyers to purchase the machines used to improve the density and manufacturing efficiency of advanced DRAM used in HBM.

But the new design could offer CXMT a way to produce sufficiently compact DRAM without relying on EUV tools, Handy said, potentially opening another front in China's challenge to Korean memory leaders.

"Both CXMT and YMTC are working hard to increase their volumes," he said, warning that their impact on Samsung and SK hynix will grow as their production expands.