뱅크오브아메리카는 블랙웰과 루빈 아키텍처 전반에 걸친 지속적인 업그레이드 사이클을 근거로, 엔비디아가 여러 분기에 걸쳐 950억 달러의 실적 상향을 달성할 것으로 전망했다.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is scheduled to report second-quarter results on August 26. Analysts are already raising expectations beyond the company’s current revenue guidance of $91 billion. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya projects revenue of $94–95 billion, representing a $3–4 billion beat. Arya also anticipates that NVIDIA will issue third-quarter revenue guidance of $107–108 billion, surpassing the $104 billion consensus estimate.

The production and deployment of Vera Rubin is expected to continue driving networking growth. Arya sees no meaningful cap on H200 shipments to China. While the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium on August 21–22 may heavily influence broader technology valuations ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings, the company is likely to set its own valuation trajectory based on robust customer capital expenditure plans and consistent execution.

**Q1 Established a High Starting Point**

NVIDIA set a strong precedent in the first quarter, growing revenue by 85% year-over-year to $81.6 billion, up from $44.7 billion in the prior year. Data center sales surged 92%, accounting for $75.2 billion of total revenue.

Maintaining such high-margin profitability remains exceptional for a hardware manufacturer. GAAP gross margin reached 74.9%, while non-GAAP gross margin was reported at 75%. GAAP operating margin stood at a formidable 53.5%, and adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.87.

For the current quarter, management provided guidance of $91 billion, plus or minus 2%. The midpoint reflects an 11.5% increase over the previous quarter. Wall Street’s consensus estimate sits near $91.9 billion, while Bank of America’s $94–95 billion projection currently represents the upper bound of analyst expectations.

**Bank of America Expects Another Upgrade Cycle**

Given that NVIDIA significantly exceeded prior revenue targets, an additional $4 billion in projected revenue represents a substantial magnitude. Bank of America forecasts that NVIDIA will set third-quarter revenue guidance between $107 billion and $108 billion, well above the broader market’s $104 billion estimate. Delivering a strong second quarter while targeting this higher range suggests a sustained earnings acceleration.

This trajectory could signal a multi-quarter cycle of analyst upgrades rather than a single-period surge. Furthermore, as market expectations adjust upward following NVIDIA’s recent performance, adhering strictly to the $91 billion guidance may appear underwhelming to investors now positioning for $95 billion. Consequently, the quality and forward-looking nature of NVIDIA’s revenue guidance will matter more than a simple second-quarter beat.

**Vera Rubin Expands NVIDIA’s Revenue per Data Center**

Vera Rubin is slated for production in the second half of 2026. It will introduce next-generation accelerators tailored for major cloud providers including AWS, Google, Azure, and Oracle. The platform presents a strategic opportunity for NVIDIA to expand beyond standalone accelerator sales into comprehensive, integrated systems. The Vera Rubin architecture features Spectrum-6 Ethernet, NVLink switches, BlueField-4 building blocks, NVIDIA software, Rubin GPUs, and Vera CPUs.

By offering fully integrated systems instead of requiring customers to source and integrate processors and software from multiple vendors, NVIDIA captures exponentially greater revenue per deployed AI data center. This approach also raises switching costs, as migrating away from NVIDIA would require replacing more than just GPUs. Meanwhile, competitors offering only discrete processors must close significant gaps across software, systems, and infrastructure integration. Investors will closely monitor production volumes, deployment timelines, and revenue realization schedules.

**Networking Has Become a Second Growth Driver**

Networking revenue reached $14.8 billion in the first quarter for Data Center Networks, marking a 199% year-over-year increase. This segment encompasses Spectrum-X Ethernet, InfiniBand, NVLink, and BlueField technologies.

Large-scale AI clusters demand high-speed interconnectivity across thousands of accelerators. As cluster sizes expand, networking performance becomes critical; inefficient data movement leaves processors idle. In this context, networking serves as a complementary revenue stream to accelerator sales while generating income comparable to large semiconductor firms, thereby reducing NVIDIA’s reliance on GPU-specific revenues alone.

**Financing Programs Could Expand AI Capacity**

Through partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR, NVIDIA is developing financing structures designed to mobilize over $500 billion for AI infrastructure, with NVIDIA prepared to contribute up to $125 billion. The remaining capital burden is expected to fall on other institutional investors.

On one hand, computing power for AI development has evolved into a financially viable infrastructure asset. Cloud providers and data center operators can now finance NVIDIA deployments without disproportionately straining their balance sheets. On the other hand, rising AI demand may increasingly be driven by leveraged financing arrangements. NVIDIA’s exposure within these structures and the subsequent impact on free cash flow will require careful evaluation, with further details expected during the earnings call.

**Hyperscaler Spending Remains High**

Combined artificial intelligence spending by leading technology companies is projected to exceed $730 billion for the current fiscal year. Major players, including Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle, and others, will sustain heavy investment in computing infrastructure.

Current customer demand appears constrained primarily by advanced packaging capacity, high-bandwidth memory availability, power supply limitations, and financing costs rather than interest rates alone. NVIDIA’s earnings will face material downside risk only if a few key customers significantly reduce spending in China. To date, capital expenditure levels remain elevated.

**China Provides Limited Upside**

China should be viewed as incremental revenue rather than a core growth pillar. Export controls remain fluid, and there is no guarantee regulatory frameworks will stay static. While approvals for low-volume shipments may help meet quarterly targets, investors should avoid assuming consistent, long-term access to the Chinese market.

**NVDA Holds Above $221 Support**

NVIDIA (currently trading at $225.18) is consolidating following its late-July recovery from $189.93. The stock broke above its downtrend line, reclaiming $209.21 and $214.41, and cleared the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $221.07. The next resistance zone lies between $229.51 and $229.54, formed by horizontal resistance and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A confirmed two-hour close above this level would open paths toward $234.51, $238.89, $245.51, and $254.01.

Momentum remains positive, with the RSI holding at 64. Price action has consolidated under low pressure while maintaining proximity to recent highs. Primary support rests at $221.01. Below that, a support cluster forms at $217.03, $214.41, and $212.25.

**What Matters Before and During Earnings**

Bond yield movements stemming from Jackson Hole could sway growth stock valuations. Market attention will also focus on potential analyst revisions, particularly as peer companies align with Bank of America’s elevated expectations.

On earnings day, scrutiny will center on: second-quarter revenue, third-quarter guidance, gross margins, the timeline for Rubin deployment, China-related revenue, and NVIDIA’s obligations under the $500 billion financing initiative.

**Bottom Line**

NVIDIA enters earnings reporting an $81.6 billion first-quarter revenue, $75.2 billion in data center sales, and a 74.9% GAAP gross margin. Management has set a second-quarter target of $91 billion, while Bank of America projects $94–95 billion alongside third-quarter guidance of $107–108 billion.

Ahead of the call, Vera Rubin’s progress, networking expansion, and resilient hyperscaler spending underpin higher estimates. Key risks include financing exposure, Chinese export restrictions, and already-elevated market expectations. Technically, $221.01 marks critical support. Bullish momentum requires a decisive close above $229.54, which would target $234.51 and $238.89 pre-report. Ultimately, the results must demonstrate more than a simple revenue beat; they need to validate sustained, forward-looking demand sufficient to justify continued upward revisions beyond management’s guidance. This analysis is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The content solely represents the author's personal opinions and does not reflect the official stance of Tradingkey. Readers should not base any investment decisions upon it.