Cerebras reports a $25.4 billion order backlog, heavily driven by a single agreement with OpenAI.
By most measures, Cerebras Systems (CBRS) delivered an outstanding second quarter. The artificial intelligence (AI) computing specialist grew its non-GAAP (adjusted) revenue 103% year over year to $209.9 million. Its inference cloud business nearly quadrupled, and management raised its full-year outlook to a range of $880 million to $890 million in adjusted revenue.
Yet the most important number in the mid-August update did not appear on the income statement. Cerebras ended June with $25.4 billion in remaining performance obligations—the backlog of contracted work it has not yet delivered or recognized as revenue. That figure represents nearly 29 times the revenue management expects for all of 2026, a projection inflated by data center costs passed through to OpenAI.
Such a large balance warrants scrutiny. According to the company’s own filings, the answer lies in a single agreement with OpenAI.
In December 2025, Cerebras signed a master relationship agreement with the ChatGPT developer under which OpenAI committed to purchasing 750 megawatts of computing capacity for AI inference—a deal Cerebras values at more than $20 billion. OpenAI also retains an option to acquire an additional 1.25 gigawatts of capacity by the end of 2030.
Remaining performance obligations stood at $24.6 billion at the close of 2025, edged up to $25.0 billion in March, and reached $25.4 billion in June. The balance grew by only approximately 3% during the first half of 2026, indicating that nearly all of it was recorded before the year began. Cerebras noted in its latest quarterly filing that a significant portion of the balance is directly attributable to its obligations under the OpenAI agreement.
During the second quarter, Cerebras recognized $56.8 million in revenue under this arrangement, accounting for roughly 32% of its $180.1 million in GAAP revenue, which expanded 74% year over year.
The conversion of this backlog into recognized revenue is intentionally slow. Cerebras expects to recognize approximately 22% of the $25.4 billion—about $5.6 billion—over the 24 months ending June 30, 2028. Another 43% should materialize between months 25 and 48, with the remainder arriving thereafter. While timing may shift at the customer’s request, the near-term conversion rate has already improved. At the end of 2025, Cerebras projected that only 15% of the balance would convert within the 24-month window through 2027; the updated 22% figure covers a period extending six months further.
Recognition spans several years largely because Cerebras is still constructing the infrastructure it has sold. Deployment capacity for OpenAI will roll out in stages from 2026 through 2028. More than 600 megawatts of data center capacity is either operational or under contract for delivery by the end of 2027, while manufacturing capacity is slated to increase more than tenfold in 2026. Earlier this week, the company announced a new 165-megawatt data center in Finland. OpenAI is also assisting with the expansion, having advanced Cerebras a $1 billion working capital loan in January.
Customer concentration is not a recent development. In 2025, Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence accounted for 62% of revenue, and Group 42 contributed another 24%. Those figures reflect prior-year sales, not the current backlog. However, the pattern persisted in the second quarter, when three customers each represented at least 10% of revenue, collectively driving 76% of total sales. The company does not disclose the exact portion of the $25.4 billion backlog tied to OpenAI, but a short roster of buyers continues to dominate purchasing activity.
This concentration carries weight given the stock’s valuation. At the time of writing, shares traded around $215, down approximately 44% from their 52-week high of $386.34. On the day of publication, the stock rose 10.30% ($19.61) to $210.05. With a market capitalization of approximately $51 billion, the company trades at nearly 58 times the adjusted revenue management expects for this year, despite still posting operating losses. Even if revenue more than triples in 2027 as planned, the stock would command roughly 19 times those projected sales.
So what is the backlog actually worth to a shareholder? Considerable, though it does not represent the entirety of the headline figure. The $25.4 billion reflects a multiyear customer commitment rather than immediate cash flow, and most of it is scheduled to convert after mid-2028. Realizing that value will require Cerebras to scale enormous capacity on schedule, much of it for a single client whose requirements could evolve.
Fundamentally, the business is executing effectively. Adjusted gross margin improved by approximately nine percentage points compared to last year, and following its initial public offering in May, Cerebras holds roughly $8.6 billion in cash and investments. Ultimately, the backlog demonstrates extraordinary market demand and remains the strongest argument for maintaining close attention on Cerebras. However, I would prefer to see OpenAI-related revenue accelerate across several more quarters before valuing the stock at today’s levels.