An analyst projects SpaceX valuation could nearly double, citing rapid deployment of Nvidia Rubin-class accelerators that could achieve full infrastructure payback within one year.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) could nearly double as its Nvidia-powered AI expansion unlocks a larger revenue opportunity, according to Oppenheimer. The stock fell 1% on Wednesday to $140.71, logging its second consecutive session in the red, and has declined 13% over the past three months.
Oppenheimer raised its SpaceX price target to $280 from $250, implying a 99% upside from current levels, and maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm identified SpaceX’s vertically integrated AI platform as a key differentiator, noting that the company owns valuable data, has access to substantial capital and Nvidia GPUs, and can rapidly build infrastructure. Oppenheimer said new Nvidia Rubin chips could pay for themselves in one year amid strong AI compute demand and pricing. SpaceX could retain 100% of the revenue generated through Cursor and Grok or capture around 50% when acting as an AI infrastructure wholesaler.
The firm noted that AI usage and productivity are running ahead of expectations, although infrastructure remains the biggest bottleneck. Consequently, Oppenheimer raised its long-term revenue estimates by approximately 10% based on stronger compute pricing, which compounds to 20% over time when combined with higher capital expenditures. The Cursor acquisition has also strengthened SpaceX’s agentic coding data and reasoning capabilities, directly benefiting Grok Bot and Grok 4.6, with further improvements expected in Grok 5.0.
In a major push into space-based computing, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia recently detailed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system, targeting initial launches in the fourth quarter of 2027 and significant scaling in 2028. SpaceX’s first-generation Starmind AI1 satellite is designed around an orbital configuration of 72 Rubin GPUs and 36 Vera CPUs. On Earth, SpaceX has adopted standalone Vera CPUs for Grok’s agentic workloads, making Nvidia’s architecture the backbone of both its terrestrial Colossus-scale builds and its emerging orbital computing network.
During its first public earnings call last month, SpaceX outlined the massive scale of its AI ambitions. The company expects to exceed 2 GW of computing capacity by the end of 2026 and move closer to 10 GW than 5 GW by the end of 2027, supported by a broader power-and-cooling pipeline totaling 20 GW. Musk stated that SpaceX has committed to using Nvidia GPUs exclusively “because they are the best,” and expects to secure a significant percentage of Nvidia’s GPU production next year. Melius Research estimated that even 2 GW of SpaceX’s planned buildout could generate $100 billion in incremental revenue for Nvidia, while the capital required for the 2027 expansion has been estimated between $300 billion and $500 billion.
Deepwater analyst Gene Munster estimated that SpaceX already contributes nearly $5 billion, or 5%, of Nvidia’s quarterly revenue, up from 3%. He noted that Nvidia may increasingly view SpaceX as a hyperscaler peer given its massive compute plans. Nvidia has also publicly disclosed an ownership stake in SpaceX.
Despite institutional optimism, retail sentiment on Stocktwits has turned bearish over the past week, accompanied by a 16% decline in 24-hour message volumes. Commentators expressed skepticism toward the valuation and recent developments. One bullish user remarked, “$SPCX Oppenheimer target is ridiculous,” while another noted, “$SPCX increased price targets and new contracts everyday, and this thing can barely clear the ipo price.”