Uranium prices break 19-year record yet GE Vernova, NuScale, and Cameco nuclear stocks simultaneously collapse.
Uranium just shattered a price record that stood for nearly two decades, yet every major nuclear stock is bleeding out. Something in the math does not add up, and the reason exposes a fault line running through the entire sector.
The long-term uranium price reached $96 per pound, an all-time record surpassing the $95/lb high from mid-2007, according to ZeroHedge's report on uranium term prices. The term price sets the multiyear contracts utilities sign to fuel their reactors, and it is up roughly 12% year to date. That should be good news for Cameco, a leading uranium producer. Instead, Cameco shares closed at $85.18 on October 2, down 6.9% for 2026.
Cameco's own filings show how much a higher term price can help it. In its Q1 FY2026 report released May 5, 2026, Cameco said the average long-term price had risen to $91.50/lb, close to its highest level since 2012. The spot price rose 34% year over year to $88.49/lb. Market-related pricing now accounts for 69% of revenue versus 51% a year ago, meaning more of Cameco's sales follow the market price. Adjusted net earnings rose to $145.59 million from $50.20 million.
The record came with very little buying behind it. TD Cowen said it formed on thin volume. Term contracting fell about 15% year over year to just over 38 million pounds as of August 31. Utilities are seeing "sticker shock on pricing and seem reluctant to contract in any meaningful way." Cameco's realized price shows how slowly its contract book catches up: $65.45/lb in Q1, compared with spot near $88.
Cameco fell 11.62% over the past month, from $96.38 to $85.18, and underperformed the market. Its 52-week high is $135.24. The rest of the sector has fared worse. Uranium Energy is down 20.38% year to date, even after selling uranium at a weighted average of $93.13/lb. Denison Mines is down 20.19% over the past month. Oklo is down 50.01% year to date. NuScale Power is down 45.31% year to date. The VanEck Uranium Nuclear Energy ETF is down 16.4% year to date, with Cameco as its second-largest holding as of October 1.
Four risks weigh on Cameco stock. On valuation, Cameco trades at a trailing P/E of 149 and a forward P/E of 52, assuming higher prices turn into higher profits quickly. The Q1 report shows that conversion lagging, with revenue coming in at $606.30 million, missing the $815.13 million consensus by 25.62%. Operationally, Cameco has highlighted possible U.S. tariffs on uranium and an extended Q3 shutdown at its Key Lake mill, plus $559 million held in a transfer pricing dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency. Full-year guidance assumes deliveries of 29 million to 32 million pounds at $85.00 to $89.00/lb, leaving little room for mill problems. On demand timing, Goldman Sachs noted that "inbounds have been extremely light on the nuclear front," arguing that hyperscalers need megawatts in 2027 rather than gigawatts in 2037. A record price that utilities are reluctant to pay does little for contract books. Analyst expectations remain positive, with 8 Strong Buy and 11 Buy ratings and a $126.75 price target, yet the stock has moved the other way.
Supply is tightening. Kazatomprom pushed back startup of its sulfuric acid plant by 6 to 12 months, and Russia banned sulfuric acid exports through year-end. Cameco's chief executive said "ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in fossil fuel supply chains are reinforcing the importance of secure, reliable and resilient baseload power." For investors with a longer horizon, the number to track next is term contracting volume. That will show whether $96 becomes the price on signed contracts or stays a record few utilities pay. Until utilities sign, the record has done little for Cameco shareholders.