중국이 일본산 핵심 반도체 제조용 가스에 대해 99.2%의 보증금 부과 조치를 시행했다.

China has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties requiring importers of a key Japanese chipmaking gas to post cash deposits of up to 99.2 percent, marking Beijing’s latest escalation in its ongoing trade standoff with Tokyo. Effective Tuesday, September 8, 2026, companies importing dichlorosilane from Japan must comply with rates outlined in Announcement No. 37 issued by China’s Ministry of Commerce. Under the ruling, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Japan’s leading producer, faces the maximum rate of 99.2 percent. Denal Silane, a joint venture between Denka and Air Liquide, receives a lower rate of 80.8 percent, while all other Japanese exporters are subject to the full 99.2 percent rate, according to reports from Nikkei Asia and the Japan Times.

While dichlorosilane may appear unremarkable, it is a colorless, flammable gas critical to semiconductor manufacturing. Within advanced chip fabrication facilities, it serves as a precursor for chemical vapor deposition, the process used to deposit silicon and oxide films just a few atoms thick across successive layers to construct both logic and memory chips. Japan dominates global production of ultra-high-purity dichlorosilane, with Shin-Etsu Chemical and Taiyo Nippon Sanso accounting for the vast majority of supply. There are currently no significant alternative suppliers positioned to fill potential gaps.

Beijing maintains that the measure is strictly economic, citing dumping rather than geopolitical strategy. The Commerce Ministry launched its investigation in January and preliminarily concluded that Japanese exports of dichlorosilane to China surged between 2022 and 2024, while prices dropped by 31 percent over the same period, causing material harm to domestic producers. The inquiry will proceed for one year, with provisions allowing a six-month extension before a final determination is issued. Tokyo has rejected this framing and formally protested the decision. The timing aligns with broader diplomatic friction; relations deteriorated significantly in November after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan could deploy its military if China used force against Taiwan. In response, Beijing added 20 Japanese firms to an export control list and placed another 20 on a watchlist in February, restricting Chinese suppliers from providing them dual-use goods. The dichlorosilane deposits represent the latest instrument in this escalating ledger, even if official documentation avoids explicit political language.

This follows a recurring pattern in China’s recent trade policy, leveraging control over specialized industrial materials—previously rare earths and indium phosphide, now a semiconductor-grade gas—to exert pressure at critical supply chain bottlenecks. Unlike broad tariffs on consumer goods, these targeted measures strike at components with highly concentrated supplier bases. For the artificial intelligence sector, the impact is direct and severe. Hyperscalers expanding accelerator capacity, memory infrastructure, and advanced packaging rely on fabs that require uninterrupted access to specialty chemicals. A 99.2 percent deposit does not constitute an outright ban, but it effectively prices most buyers out of the market, forcing semiconductor manufacturers to absorb costs, accelerate alternative sourcing, or delay production timelines.

Shifting away from Japanese dichlorosilane supply is not a short-term solution. Achieving qualification for ultra-high-purity gas production requires years of rigorous testing and validation, a barrier that has allowed Shin-Etsu to maintain its market dominance. South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers, alongside U.S. foundries scaling domestic capacity, face the highest exposure should the dispute persist into 2027 without resolution. Nevertheless, Beijing has preserved a diplomatic off-ramp: because the measure is provisional, a final ruling remains months away, leaving room for bilateral negotiations before temporary deposits convert into permanent duties. However, Japan’s formal protest indicates skepticism toward a swift settlement, and the twelve months of reciprocal export controls between the two nations suggest limited near-term prospects for de-escalation.