Applied Digital Contracted Revenue, September 2026: Five Leases Push the Total Past $7 Billion

Five GPU infrastructure leases have pushed Applied Digital's initial-term contracted revenue above $7 billion, capping a period of rapid contract accumulation — but with FY2026 capex at 469% of revenue and Treasury yields rising, the distance between a record contract book and durable free cash flow remains the defining investor question.

Applied Digital (APLD) has crossed a threshold that few neoclouds reach in a single year. Five GPU infrastructure lease agreements have collectively pushed the company's initial-term contracted revenue beyond $7 billion, a milestone that sits against a reported FY2026 revenue base of $611 million and illustrates the scale of the commercial pipeline that hyperscaler demand has helped assemble. In September 2026, a separate $7.5 billion hyperscaler lease was reported to have driven after-hours buying in the stock, and total contracted lease commitments have been reported at approximately $36 billion. For a company that converted from crypto-mining infrastructure only a few years ago, the pace of the commercial transformation is notable on its own terms.

The capital program underpinning those contracts is equally striking. Applied Digital's FY2026 capex reached $2.87 billion, up 320% from $682 million in FY2025, and represented 469% of that year's $611 million in revenue — the third-highest capex intensity among the seven neoclouds tracked in Slicast's SEC XBRL compilation, behind only NBIS. At the project level, the third supercomputing lease at Delta Forge 2 covers 210 megawatts with a $5.2 billion base-term contract. B. Riley, maintaining a $75 price target, conducted a site visit to Polaris Forge 2 in August 2026 and reported strong execution progress, separately noting that ChronoScale's disclosed Microsoft-backed deployment plan reinforced its thesis. The post-earnings reaction in August 2026 — an 8.4% gain on reported revenue growth of roughly 407% year over year — confirmed that the market, at the right price, rewards visible delivery.

Analyst coverage has broadened as the contract book has grown. In September 2026, UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $38 price target, citing Applied Digital's inference and training infrastructure as the core value driver. That target sits materially above the current stock price of $26.25, which reflects a roughly 36% decline over the preceding three months. The retreat has coincided with a rise in US Treasury yields that, according to multiple September 2026 reports, has pressured Applied Digital alongside peers Cipher Mining and Core Scientific — all three carry large capital programs whose returns lie years ahead. Coverage did not attribute any specific session's decline to a single disclosed cause.

The financing structure gives that yield sensitivity concrete form. In August 2026, Applied Digital closed a $350 million credit facility. A September 2026 share registration covering up to $835 million earmarked for data-center construction adds to the dilution exposure. The combination has produced divergent analyst readings: B. Riley and Needham have cited the signing pace as evidence the buildout thesis is intact; analysts at Seeking Alpha and Trefis have flagged the tension between a potential four-fold revenue expansion and the near-term cost to existing equity holders. At 469% of revenue, Applied Digital's capex intensity is structurally front-loaded in a way that is standard for large-scale infrastructure developers but leaves the company acutely sensitive to tightening credit conditions.

Three signals will determine whether the contract book translates into sustained value. The first is execution speed: the interval between a signed lease and a live, revenue-producing facility is where infrastructure developers have historically surprised in both directions, and Applied Digital now carries enough sites in various stages — Polaris Forge 2, Delta Forge 2, and a second Brookwood, Alabama campus reported in August 2026 — to make delivery cadence the primary operational variable. The second is the trajectory of long-dated Treasury yields: the sensitivity observed in September 2026 was sharp, and any sustained rise would simultaneously compress the discounted present value of long-dated contracted cash flows and tighten refinancing terms for facilities still under construction. The third is competitive pricing: as CoreWeave, the absolute capex leader among tracked neoclouds, and IREN continue their own buildouts, hyperscaler customers retain leverage over lease economics, and the revenue quality embedded in the $7-billion-plus initial-term backlog will depend in part on how renewal terms are structured. Applied Digital has assembled one of the largest contract books in its category; the next phase tests whether it can be delivered on time and on budget.