오라클은 클라우드 AI 인프라 성장률 가속화와 미이행 계약 잔액 증가를 보고하며, AI 컴퓨팅 배포에 대한 강력한 수주 잔고를 시사했다.

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) has rapidly repositioned itself at the center of artificial intelligence infrastructure demand. Its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, released on June 10, 2026, reported a $638 billion remaining performance obligation (RPO)—nearly ten times annual revenue—alongside 93% cloud infrastructure growth. Yet the same AI buildout filling Oracle’s order book is driving the company into negative free cash flow territory and triggering credit-rating concerns that investors cannot overlook.

What the Latest Reported Quarter Says About the Current Operating Story and the Main Business Drivers

Oracle reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 cloud infrastructure (IaaS) revenue of $5.8 billion, representing 93% year-over-year growth in U.S. dollars (92% in constant currency). For the full fiscal year 2026, cloud infrastructure revenue totaled $18.1 billion, up 77% from fiscal 2025. Total company revenue reached $19.2 billion in the fourth quarter, a 21% year-over-year increase, while full-year fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $67.4 billion, up 17%. Non-GAAP earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $2.11, up 24% year-over-year and exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.96. Full-year non-GAAP EPS reached $7.63, up 27% in U.S. dollars, while GAAP net income for fiscal 2026 was $17.087 billion, up 37% year-over-year.

The RPO remains the headline metric, standing at $638 billion at fiscal year-end—a 363% year-over-year increase and an $85 billion sequential jump from the third quarter. Management disclosed that $75 billion of this total reflects prepaid customer amounts or customer-supplied hardware, a structure that reduces Oracle’s direct capital obligations while locking in multi-year revenue commitments from AI workload operators, including Meta and NVIDIA. Oracle’s AI data center capacity is approximately 98% contracted, with global GPU utilization at 97.5%, indicating a supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained operating environment. During fiscal 2026, the company delivered more than 1.2 gigawatts of GPU capacity to customers.

What the Revenue Mix, Margins, Balance-Sheet Context, and Management Commentary Imply for Investors Now

The shifting revenue mix underscores a structural transition. Cloud applications (SaaS) grew 10% in the fourth quarter to $4.1 billion ($15.9 billion for the full year, up 11%), while traditional software revenue declined 2% in the fourth quarter to $6.8 billion ($24.5 billion for fiscal 2026, down 1%). Infrastructure, now the fastest-growing segment at 93% in the fourth quarter, serves as the primary growth engine but remains the most capital-intensive.

Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow reached a record $32.0 billion, up 54% year-over-year. However, capital expenditures of approximately $55.66 billion resulted in negative free cash flow of -$23.7 billion for the fiscal year. To fund this expansion, Oracle raised $43 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity during fiscal 2026, with plans to secure an additional $40 billion—including a $20 billion at-the-market equity issuance—in fiscal 2027. Non-current borrowings totaled $122.342 billion as of May 31, 2026, up from $85.297 billion a year earlier.

These balance sheet dynamics carry tangible credit implications. S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB, one notch above high-yield, while Moody’s maintains a negative outlook on its Baa2 rating, warning that debt could reach four times earnings given Oracle’s AI commitments. Management’s fiscal 2027 guidance projects $90 billion in total revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $8.05, with cloud revenue expected to grow 58%–64% in U.S. dollars and total capital expenditures reaching approximately $70 billion. This $70 billion capex plan, against $32 billion of operating cash flow, necessitates sustained external financing to execute its growth strategy.

Management indicated that 12% of the RPO is expected to be recognized over the next twelve months, with 34% scheduled between months 13 and 36—both rates described as accelerating. At the 12% near-term rate, approximately $76.6 billion would convert to revenue in the twelve months following the fourth quarter. Oracle’s multicloud database business, which grew 817% year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, provides a distinct competitive angle. The company now operates 45 live multicloud regions embedded within AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, with 27 additional regions planned.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Three specific metrics will determine whether the current investment thesis holds. First, RPO conversion velocity: investors should monitor management’s quarterly disclosures of recognition rates against the 12% near-term baseline. Any deceleration would signal deployment shortfalls, contract renegotiations, or demand softening, each carrying distinct operational implications. Second, the free cash flow trajectory: the critical milestone is when fiscal 2027 operating cash flow begins to offset capital expenditures and push free cash flow back toward positive territory. If the $70 billion capex plan produces another deeply negative free cash flow year without a commensurate acceleration in recognized revenue, credit-rating pressure will intensify. Third, the credit rating floor: Moody’s negative outlook makes a second downgrade plausible. Any move to sub-investment-grade territory would raise Oracle’s borrowing costs precisely when it needs to access $40 billion in new capital, creating a compounding financial risk.

Key Signals for Investors

Near-term revenue growth is now constrained by deployment velocity rather than demand, despite 98% of AI data center capacity being contracted. The $638 billion RPO, inclusive of $75 billion in prepaid or customer-supplied hardware, provides multi-year forward revenue visibility, though the 12% near-term recognition rate implies approximately $76.6 billion in revenue conversion over the next twelve months if execution remains on track. Negative free cash flow of -$23.7 billion in fiscal 2026, despite record operating cash flow of $32 billion, reflects $55.66 billion in capital expenditures; fiscal 2027 guidance calls for $70 billion in capex and $40 billion in external financing, requiring investors to track whether operating cash generation begins to close this gap. With S&P having downgraded Oracle to BBB and Moody’s holding a negative Baa2 outlook, any further rating action would increase borrowing costs at a moment when continuous capital-market access is essential. Finally, fiscal 2027 guidance of $90 billion in revenue and $8.05 non-GAAP EPS implies accelerating RPO-to-revenue conversion, yet market skepticism—evidenced by shares declining from approximately $156 to $142 after fourth-quarter earnings—prices in execution and financing risks that warrant close quarterly monitoring.