KBW 애널리스트들은 Anthropic의 AMD 및 해외 임대 계획이 Core Scientific과 TeraWulf에 유리할 것으로 분석했으나, 여전히 백스톱(지급보증)이 필요하다고 밝혔다.
Anthropic's AMD capacity agreement and its overseas data-center lease talks could bring new business to Core Scientific (NASDAQ: CORZ) and TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF), KBW analyst Stephen Glagola said Tuesday in a review of the AI lab's S-1 filing. The AMD agreement could exceed $20 billion over its term if fully procured. Glagola also expects hardware providers to keep supplying credit support for the direct Anthropic leases at TeraWulf and Riot (NASDAQ: RIOT).
The note makes no rating or price target changes. It covers an initial tranche of AMD-based rack-scale capacity slated for deployment in 2027, which Anthropic can expand by up to roughly the same amount.
Core Scientific already leases 377 MW of critical IT capacity to AMD across Pecos, Muskogee and Hunt County, according to its July 28 8-K under Item 7.01. AMD also holds reservation rights for another 1,925 MW through December 28, 2028.
"We view this as positive for CORZ, given AMD's existing leases and reservation rights across its campuses, although we caveat the S-1 does not disclose where either tranche will be deployed," Glagola wrote.
The filing also shows Anthropic has signed letters of intent and is negotiating leases in multiple non-U.S. jurisdictions. Glagola ties that to TeraWulf management's comments that its first international project could be in Northern Europe and tied to tenant demand.
On credit, an investment-grade rating for Anthropic would be "a meaningful positive catalyst for the miners by truly expanding the bankable tenant universe and reducing reliance on hardware providers such as Nvidia, Amazon and Google to backstop individual projects," Glagola wrote. He doubts one is coming soon, citing Anthropic's consumption-based revenue, limited free cash flow history, $587 billion of future infrastructure obligations and rising capital intensity.
"WULF's and RIOT's respective Anthropic financings should provide the next key read, with the selected hardware provider expected to furnish the credit support in each case," he wrote.
TeraWulf's Hawesville lease covers 401 MW of critical IT capacity over 20 years, with about $19 billion of contracted revenue. Riot's Rockdale lease, which KBW identifies as Anthropic's, covers 191 MW over 20 years for about $9.1 billion. Riot has lined up $573 million of interim financing from Morgan Stanley while an investment-grade backstop is finalized.
KBW's earlier valuation work on Core Scientific applied a 6.6% cap rate to AMD as a single-A tenant, against 9.2% for CoreWeave. In this note, Glagola wrote that Anthropic's reliance on cloud providers "reinforces our preference for direct hyperscaler leases, which we think support more durable stabilized cap rates."