삼성전자, HBM4 수율 80% 달성 및 HBM4E 양산 가속화

As growth in general-purpose DRAM prices is expected to moderate, the memory race is shifting toward next-generation HBM, with the three major memory makers stepping up their efforts. According to the Seoul Economic Daily, Samsung’s HBM4 yield has climbed to 80%, up from below 60% when mass production began in February, highlighting rapid process improvements amid tight HBM supply. Citing an industry source, the report notes that while Samsung initially set an 80% yield target for the end of 2026, process improvements have already outpaced expectations.

Infostock Daily suggests Samsung has made notable progress in the thermal compression non-conductive film (TC-NCF) process, long considered a weak point in its HBM manufacturing. Meanwhile, ETNews points to another key driver: the underlying 1c DRAM used in HBM4. Samsung had already pushed 1c DRAM yields above 80% earlier this year, establishing a stable production base that has helped lift overall HBM4 yields, the report adds.

Against this backdrop, the Seoul Economic Daily reports that Samsung plans to more than triple HBM4 revenue in the third quarter. HBM4 is expected to account for more than 60% of Samsung’s total HBM sales in the second half of 2026. As HBM4 yields stabilize, the company is targeting an HBM market share of approximately 38% by year-end, roughly matching its position in the broader DRAM market. Samsung’s increased HBM4 supply could also accelerate production of NVIDIA’s next-generation AI accelerator, “Vera Rubin.” The Seoul Economic Daily notes that major customers like NVIDIA would benefit from diversifying their HBM sourcing across multiple vendors rather than relying heavily on a single supplier.

This ramp-up aligns with TrendForce’s June forecast, which projects a sharp increase in Samsung’s 2026 HBM4 market share compared to previous estimates, driven by its lead in customer qualification and higher projected shipments. Conversely, SK hynix is expected to see its share trimmed amid qualification delays and capacity shifts, while Micron’s share is likely to remain relatively stable given its limited exposure to HBM4. Looking beyond market share, TrendForce expects HBM suppliers to retain pricing power through 2027 as supply remains constrained, with significant price increases already anticipated across the industry. Although HBM bit shipments are projected to grow 50%–60% year over year in 2027, this increase is still expected to fall short of demand growth, keeping the market tight.

On the other side of the competitive landscape, Infostock Daily notes that industry insiders estimate SK hynix’s HBM4 yield has already reached the 80% range. The company’s long track record of mass-producing HBM across generations, combined with its proprietary Advanced Mass Ref Molded Underfill (MR-MUF) packaging technology, is expected to support a smooth production ramp in the second half. As reported by ETNews, SK hynix is currently discussing orders for the second half of the year with multiple HBM process-equipment suppliers as it prepares to place additional orders to expand HBM4 production capacity.

However, the main variable for SK hynix’s ramp-up may now be labor relations rather than production readiness. Infostock Daily reports that SK hynix management and labor failed to reach an agreement on bonus payments during the fifth round of the 2026 wage and collective bargaining talks. The primary sticking point is the company’s profit-sharing (PS) scheme. In exchange for scrapping the previous cap of 1,000% of base salary, both sides had agreed to allocate 10% of the previous year’s annual operating profit to the PS pool. Under the proposed system, 80% of each employee’s calculated bonus would be paid in the same year, with the remaining 20% deferred over two years. This arrangement would remain in place for the next decade.

The union, however, is pushing back against management’s latest proposal to pay more than half of this year’s PS in treasury shares and impose a lock-up period on their sale. With Samsung Electronics accelerating its push to close the gap by stabilizing yields while expanding production capacity, a prolonged labor dispute—or any escalation into industrial action—could increasingly pressure SK hynix.