Nvidia는 AI 부채 우려가 Broadcom과 Oracle을 강타하는 가운데에도 견조한 흐름을 보이고 있다.

NVIDIA has held up better than Broadcom and Oracle because its rising forward earnings estimates have helped support its shares. Investors are growing more cautious about the debt financing behind the AI boom, but NVIDIA, Broadcom and Oracle face different pressures. NVIDIA's rising earnings estimates have helped support its stock, while Oracle's financing needs and Broadcom's dependence on major customers have weighed on theirs.

The difference increasingly comes down to how quickly AI demand turns into earnings and cash, and how much borrowing companies need to fund the infrastructure behind it.

**Why NVIDIA Shares Are Holding Up Better**

MarketWatch reported on October 10 that Oracle shares had fallen more than 40% since June 2, while Broadcom was down about 25%. NVIDIA's forward earnings estimates had risen more than 30%, compared with gains of more than 20% for Broadcom and about 14% for Oracle, which helped cushion its valuation decline.

MarketWatch's October 10 analysis found that NVIDIA's rising forward earnings estimates offset a contracting price-to-earnings multiple and widening credit-default-swap (CDS) spreads, while Broadcom and Oracle faced sharper share-price declines.

Credit markets are also demanding different levels of protection. Separate coverage put Oracle's CDS spread at a record 261 basis points, while NVIDIA's stood at roughly 80 to 87 basis points. Wider CDS spreads mean investors demand more compensation for credit risk. They do not mean a default is imminent.

**Why Oracle's Debt and Broadcom's Customers Matter**

Oracle faces substantial upfront infrastructure costs. "Free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion for fiscal year 2026 as Oracle continued to execute on investments to support the growth of its Cloud Infrastructure business," Oracle said in its June 10, 2026, earnings release.

Oracle also reported $638 billion in contracted future revenue, up 363% year over year, and said $75 billion in hardware tied to major AI contracts was either prepaid by customers or supplied directly by them. The open question is how quickly those commitments turn into cash, and whether Oracle can deliver the infrastructure on schedule.

Broadcom faces a different risk. Its custom AI chip and networking growth depends on a handful of large customers continuing to spend. "We believe aggregate sales to our top five end customers, through all channels, accounted for approximately 55%" of Broadcom's net revenue for the fiscal quarter ended August 2, 2026, the company disclosed in its SEC filing.

NVIDIA has a lighter balance sheet, but it is not insulated from the cycle. It has committed nearly $50 billion to frontier AI labs, and a slowdown among major customers could affect demand for its chips.

**What to Watch as AI Borrowing Costs Rise**

The Financial Times reported that AI-related debt issuance fell to about $23 billion in September, less than half of August's level, as investors questioned the returns on infrastructure spending. "Oracle expects capital expenditures to be approximately $50 billion in fiscal 2026," the company said in its June 2026 earnings materials, illustrating the scale of its investment behind AI expansion.

The next test is whether Oracle can turn its $638 billion backlog into cash without continually increasing its financing burden, and whether Broadcom's largest customers sustain their spending. For NVIDIA, the key question is whether earnings estimates keep rising fast enough to support its valuation.

Credit spreads, free cash flow and the terms of new debt deals will show whether AI infrastructure spending is generating enough cash to justify its cost. Wider spreads signal rising financing concerns, not proof that the AI boom is ending.

Commentary on social media captured the same concern. Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) wrote on October 10, 2026:

"The AI boom is becoming a debt boom and credit markets are getting nervous. Oracle's 5y CDS trades near a record 261bps, implying a 20.4% default probability. SpaceX: 16.5%. Even Nvidia: >7%. AI-related borrowers have issued nearly $500bn of debt this year, Bloomberg reports. The question: how much future AI revenue is already being spent?"