미국은 반도체 공급망 정렬과 관련해 동맹국으로부터 양보를 이끌어내기 위해 GPU 수출 규제를 외교적 도구로 활용하고 있다.

Advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) have emerged as a critical resource in the artificial intelligence era, increasingly functioning as diplomatic bargaining chips that shape international relations and security. While the United States has historically leveraged GPU export controls as a sanction mechanism to curb China’s technological and military advancements, analysts now observe a strategic shift: access to cutting-edge chips is being deployed as a diplomatic incentive to secure desired foreign policy outcomes.

According to a Wall Street Journal report dated September 4, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently invited regional leaders and executives from companies including NVIDIA and Dell to the opening ceremony of the Firebird AI Factory in Hrazdan, located approximately 48 kilometers from the Azerbaijani border. The facility is slated to expand into a 300-megawatt AI data center equipped with more than 70,000 NVIDIA Blackwell and Rubin GPUs by the end of 2027. Behind this infrastructure push lies a broader diplomatic framework brokered by the United States. During negotiations for a preliminary peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan last year, the U.S. team offered expanded export permits for advanced NVIDIA GPUs to the Firebird project as a key incentive. The two nations had clashed for over 35 years over territorial rights in Nagorno-Karabakh before reaching a preliminary accord under Trump administration mediation. By approving large-scale GPU exports to Armenia—a country that previously required individual government permits for such imports—the United States provided economic compensation comparable to traditional aid or arms sales, effectively encouraging ratification of the peace deal.

This diplomatic application marks a significant evolution from the U.S.’s initial posture toward GPU exports. Since 2022, Washington has systematically tightened export controls to prevent Beijing from acquiring NVIDIA’s high-performance chips and advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, gradually expanding restrictions to include lower-specification models designed to circumvent regulations. The measures also targeted workarounds where Chinese firms accessed U.S.-made computing power through third-country data centers. Today, however, GPU access rights are increasingly treated as a strategic diplomatic asset. Regional partners face similar hurdles; both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia encountered restrictions on freely importing high-performance American GPUs due to concerns over technology leakage to China. In response, the UAE committed to investing $1.4 trillion over a decade in U.S. AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and energy, prompting Washington to sign an AI agreement that expands advanced GPU exports. The UAE also agreed to align its security protocols with U.S. standards to mitigate technology transfer risks. Similarly, Saudi Arabia secured initial approval for Humain, its sovereign wealth fund-affiliated AI company, to import 18,000 NVIDIA GPUs, with long-term plans to scale procurement to hundreds of thousands, contingent upon substantial investments in the United States and enhanced security cooperation.

NVIDIA’s chips have become indispensable precisely because they function as the global standard for AI infrastructure. Although major technology firms like Google and Amazon are developing proprietary AI semiconductors, the vast majority of enterprises and governments continue to rely on NVIDIA hardware alongside its CUDA software platform. Without reliable access to the latest GPUs, organizations struggle to train large AI models or build competitive AI-driven industries, placing them at a distinct disadvantage in the global race. As tech giants compete to secure millions of chips, even well-capitalized buyers frequently face delays and allocation shortages.

With advanced GPU supplies now explicitly tied to U.S. foreign policy, the viability of data center projects hinges heavily on diplomatic alignment. Nations granted U.S. approval can prioritize securing scarce Blackwell and Rubin GPUs to accelerate their AI development. However, this dependency introduces systemic risk: if export permits are revoked or altered due to political transitions, deteriorating bilateral relations, or renewed regional instability, multi-year infrastructure investments could face immediate disruption.