인도 모디 총리가 미국-중국 경쟁 속 전략 광물과 기술 무기화에 경고하면서 공급망에서 인도의 자율성을 드러낸다.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned against weaponising critical minerals and technology at the BRICS Summit, speaking directly to Chinese President Xi Jinping. The warning reflects deepening concerns about how the US and China have weaponized their respective dominance—China controls approximately 90 percent of global rare earth processing, while the US holds technological supremacy in artificial intelligence and advanced semiconductor chips.

This rivalry has created ripple effects across the global economy. Both nations have deployed export controls and bans against each other, catching countries like India in the crossfire.

**The critical minerals battleground**

Critical minerals underpin the energy transition—lithium powers electric vehicle batteries, while rare earths appear in smartphones and advanced electronics. In 2023, China imposed export restrictions on gallium, germanium, and rare earth elements including gadolinium and lutetium, framed as a national security measure since these minerals serve both civilian and military applications.

The move followed US sanctions on Chinese access to advanced semiconductor technology. China's dominance in this space is substantial: the International Energy Agency reports that China controls most of the world's supply, refining, and manufacturing of critical minerals essential for electronics, vehicles, and military equipment. The 2025 Global Critical Minerals Outlook found that China is the leading refiner for 19 of 20 strategic minerals, commanding an average 70 percent market share. Beyond its domestic reserves, China has expanded by acquiring major mining assets overseas—including lithium mines in Mali, according to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies.

These restrictions have exposed supply chain vulnerabilities rooted in overdependence on a single country.

**The technology race**

The technology and minerals battles are intertwined. The US leverages dominance in semiconductors and AI to restrict Chinese access, while China uses critical mineral export controls as counterpressure. The competition is intensifying: American firms like OpenAI and Anthropic set global standards in advanced microchips and AI development, but Chinese firms are rapidly offering cost-effective alternatives that appeal to the Global South.

Performance gaps are narrowing. The Stanford University AI Index Report showed that China is closing the gap with the US—in February 2025, DeepSeek-R1 briefly matched the top US model, and as of March 2026, Anthropic's leading model holds a lead of just 2.7 percent. The US still produces more top-tier models overall, but the trajectory favors China.

**India's position**

Modi highlighted the stakes for countries caught between the superpowers, warning that "weaponisation of technology and critical minerals can hinder our shared progress." India faces a dual challenge: reducing dependence on any single source while building indigenous technological and semiconductor capacity.

The National Critical Mineral Mission allocated ₹34,300 crore to exploration, refining, and recycling. India is negotiating a dedicated critical minerals chapter in its free trade agreement with Chile and has signed Pax Silica, a US-led semiconductor initiative. For artificial intelligence, the IndiaAI Mission aims to develop sovereign infrastructure and indigenous models, leveraging India's deep talent pool.

The larger question remains: whether India and other nations can build indigenous capacity swiftly enough to insulate themselves from an escalating US-China competition.