Financial Newswire에 따르면, 순환출자(circular financing)에 대한 우려가 Anthropic의 보도된 2조 달러 규모 IPO 계획에 부담으로 작용하고 있다.

Concerns are mounting that Anthropic's proposed $2 trillion initial public offering (IPO) could expose ordinary investors to an artificial intelligence (AI) boom increasingly driven by what critics describe as a circular financing model among a small group of technology giants.

Scepticism has been heightened by the gap between the Claude developer's underlying financial performance and its lofty aspirations. A leaked prospectus last week revealed that the company generated $4.6 billion in revenue in 2025 while suffering a $42 billion net loss.

Despite this, Anthropic is seeking a $2 trillion valuation, compared with the $150 billion estimate assigned by the research firm New Constructs, which has labelled its planned Nasdaq listing the "most ridiculous IPO" of 2026.

Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, argues that the disconnect reflects a broader tendency to confuse innovation with investment merit.

"Brilliant technology and a sound valuation are two very different things, and the price paid decides which one investors end up owning," Green said.

"A $2 trillion valuation on $4.6 billion of revenue asks investors to pay today for a future where almost everything goes right.

"And a large share of the demand propping up that future is circulating between the same handful of players."

Anthropic has committed $518 billion to AI infrastructure, including up to $84.5 billion of computing capacity from SpaceX through 2029. SpaceX, in turn, builds its AI data centres exclusively with Nvidia hardware. Nvidia is also a major investor in the AI ecosystem and holds a stake in SpaceX.

"Follow the cash around the circle. Nvidia money goes into SpaceX. SpaceX borrows to buy Nvidia chips. Anthropic rents the computing power, and SpaceX books the rent as AI revenue," Green said.

"Then Anthropic arrives on public markets carrying a valuation partly built on the growth those same arrangements generate."

While Green acknowledges that demand for AI is "genuine and powerful," he said investors still do not know "how much of it is the same dollars doing laps."

The Bank of England has also warned that rising indebtedness, opacity and "circular arrangements" in AI financing could magnify losses if expectations fall short.

"These were some of the most cash-generative companies in history," Green said.

"Now they're borrowing to keep building while financing their own customers to keep the orders coming. You've got leverage stacked on leverage, with the same names on both sides of the table."

Green said he sees parallels between AI and the telecom boom of the late 1990s, when equipment makers helped finance customers' purchases, inflating sales before the cycle eventually broke down.

"The technology changed the world. Investors still lost fortunes, because the money holding the boom up kept going round in circles until it stopped," he said.

"At $2 trillion, the circle has to spin faster forever. Circles rarely manage it."