Applied Digital(APLD) 주가가 지지선을 하회하며 20달러 선을 위협받고 있다. 회사는 360억 달러 규모의 계약 매출을 발표했지만, 중국 메모리 업체들의 투자 계획이 우려를 키우고 있다.

Applied Digital shares have fallen roughly 50% from their May highs above $50 and recently traded below $22 after breaking the $24 support zone. The stock is now approaching the psychologically important $20 level, and investors are watching for signs that selling pressure is easing.

The decline reflects a reassessment of the costs and returns of large-scale data-center expansion. Despite substantial long-term customer commitments, the market is increasingly focused on financing needs, execution risks and the timing of future profitability.

### China Memory Competition Adds Pressure

According to the South China Morning Post on October 12, China's CXMT plans to introduce server memory using a denser cell architecture before year-end. Packing more memory into each chip could eventually increase supply and pressure prices if production scales successfully.

The implications remain uncertain, but the development adds another competitive risk for semiconductor companies and the broader infrastructure ecosystem. Any deterioration in chip pricing, revenue guidance or margins could weaken sentiment toward companies that depend on continued growth in computing capacity.

### $36 Billion in Contracted Revenue

Applied Digital's HPC Hosting business provides data-center capacity to hyperscalers, including CoreWeave, while its Data Center Hosting operations serve customers such as cryptocurrency miners.

As of May 31, 2026, the company reported approximately 1.41 gigawatts of contracted critical IT load across five campuses. These agreements represent roughly $36 billion in potential base-term lease revenue over 15 years, and renewal options could increase that total.

However, contracted revenue is not the same as immediate cash flow or guaranteed profit. Construction costs, operating expenses and financing obligations remain central to the investment case.

### Technical Picture Looks Weak

From a chart perspective, the recovery into January looked constructive, as Applied Digital reclaimed key levels and moved decisively above prior highs. The subsequent reversal was sharp, however, with shares falling below $30. The 50 SMA (yellow) held as support, and the stock rebounded to a new record above $50 in May. It has since reversed lower, falling below $22, and is now testing the 100-week SMA (green), which opens the door to $20.

### Finland Expansion Raises Funding Questions

Applied Digital has also secured access to up to 1 gigawatt of potential power capacity in Finland, a possible expansion beyond the United States. Initial power availability is expected from 2028, although no customer has been announced.

The opportunity could support future growth, but it also adds development requirements before revenue can materialize. The company must show that new projects can attract customers while maintaining acceptable returns on invested capital.

### Nvidia Exit Weakens Investor Confidence

Nvidia's disclosed exit from its equity investment in Applied Digital has removed a high-profile source of investor confidence. While the decision does not automatically signal operational weakness, it has prompted closer scrutiny of the company's valuation and long-term prospects.

### Fiscal First Quarter 2027 Financial Highlights

- Revenues: $341.9 million, up 322% from the prior-year comparable period

- Net loss attributable to common stockholders: $221.0 million

- Net loss attributable to common stockholders per basic and diluted share: $0.76

- Adjusted revenue: $300.4 million

- Adjusted net loss: $4.1 million

- Adjusted net loss per diluted share: $0.01

- Adjusted EBITDA: $64.4 million

- Net operating income: $58.8 million

### Technical Outlook: $20 in Focus

Applied Digital's expansion plans remain substantial, but capital-intensive construction and uncertain market conditions create risks. The stock needs to reclaim $24 to improve its technical picture. A sustained hold above $20 could provide temporary stability, while a decisive break below that level would expose the shares to further downside.

### Conclusion

Applied Digital has significant contracted growth potential, but investors are increasingly focused on funding requirements, execution and profitability. Until the company demonstrates that its expansion can generate sustainable returns, the stock may remain vulnerable to further selling.