비트코인 투자자 Arthur Hayes는 $1.5조 규모의 AI 인프라 capex 버블이 형성되고 있으며 시스템적 금융 위험을 야기한다고 경고했다.

Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, recently liquidated holdings across several altcoins and reallocated his fund's positions in what he described as defensive moves. He sold his Hyperliquid (HYPE), Near Protocol (NEAR), and Worldcoin (WLD) positions entirely, and exited his stake in Zcash (ZEC) due to a vulnerability in Orchard Pool. Hayes stated that capital preservation, not capital appreciation, is the current priority.

The moves reflect Hayes's broader bearish outlook on the cryptocurrency market. He argues that the artificial intelligence buildout has effectively starved Bitcoin of liquidity by consuming vast amounts of newly created capital. According to his analysis, $1.5 trillion in debt was issued to fund AI infrastructure from November 2022 to the present, while the M2 money supply rose by a nearly identical $1.5 trillion over the same period. This means, Hayes contends, that AI has "sucked up all created dollars" that would otherwise have supported cryptocurrency valuations.

Hayes identified three potential catalysts for an AI bubble collapse. First, disruption of oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions could drive higher energy costs. Second, the market may lack the capacity to absorb a wave of major initial public offerings from companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Third, President Trump may adopt an anti-AI stance to appeal to voters before the November midterms. If any of these scenarios materialize, Hayes warned that "if AI stocks crater, there will be no excess capital with which to invest in Bitcoin. Banks will pull back on lending, and some will find that their loans were based on fugazi cash flows."

Hayes further predicted a political dimension to any government response. He wrote that Trump would likely need to "talk tough towards the AI tech bros and their financial enablers to hoodwink the public into believing he is serious about creating an equitable distribution of the wealth generated by the AI productivity miracle." A financial rescue, Hayes argued, would only become politically feasible after the November election.

Despite his blunt assessment of Ethereum as "dead but functional," Hayes remains long ETH. He cited no immediate pressure to sell and expressed confidence that an AI-driven financial crisis will eventually force central banks into what he calls "The Big Print"—a fresh wave of monetary expansion. He expects this sequence to initially send Bitcoin lower before driving prices sharply higher.

Maelstrom's current portfolio reflects this thesis: the fund maintains core long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with significant holdings in US-listed energy producers and tactical short positions via derivatives. Hayes indicated he may reassess the market in early September.

Hayes also reflected on previous miscalculations, acknowledging that he had once predicted Bitcoin would never trade at $60,000 again—a level it has since exceeded multiple times.