오라클의 클라우드 인프라 백로그는 6,380억 달러에 달하며, 이를 통해 2028년까지 가장 우수한 성과를 거둔 AI 주식 중 하나로 자리매김하고 있다.
Over the past year, Oracle (ORCL) shares have declined 32%, significantly underperforming the Nasdaq Composite, which gained 22%. This lackluster performance stems from rising debt and shrinking free cash flow, driven by Oracle’s aggressive expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. The company is rapidly scaling its cloud infrastructure to meet surging demand for AI workloads and database services.
Despite investor concerns over elevated capital expenditures, Oracle is well-positioned to emerge from its current slump due to a massive revenue backlog. This backlog could propel the company into one of the market’s top-performing AI stocks over the next few years.
On June 10, Oracle reported fiscal 2026 results for the year ended May 31, revealing a 17% year-over-year revenue increase to a record $67.4 billion. This growth was largely fueled by a 77% surge in cloud infrastructure revenue, which reached $18.1 billion. However, the most critical metric in the fiscal 2026 report was Oracle’s remaining performance obligation (RPO)—the total value of unfulfilled contracts. In fiscal Q4, RPO surged to $638 billion, a $500 billion increase from the prior-year period.
During the June earnings call, Oracle CFO Hilary Maxson stated: “This unprecedented level of RPO provides exceptional visibility into our future revenue growth, all supported by long term contractual customer commitments and reflects the strong customer demand we see across both AI infrastructure and cloud services. To give a bit more detail on our RPO, we expect 12% to be recognized in the next 12 months and another 34% between 13 and 36 months.”
Based on these projections, Oracle is positioned to accelerate backlog-to-revenue conversion over the next three years. Maxson’s guidance indicates the company will recognize approximately $77 billion from its RPO in fiscal 2027. Between fiscal 2028 and 2029, Oracle plans to convert an additional $217 billion of RPO into revenue, establishing an annual run rate of $108 billion. These aggressive infrastructure investments are poised to yield substantial returns, positioning Oracle for robust revenue and earnings growth as backlog conversion accelerates. Accordingly, the company forecasts fiscal 2027 revenue to rise 34% to just over $90 billion—double its fiscal 2026 growth rate. Market analysts project continued acceleration in Oracle’s growth trajectory throughout fiscal 2028, with further improvements expected in fiscal 2029.
Concurrently, Oracle is implementing measures to manage capital expenditures moving forward. The company is increasingly requiring customers to provide upfront payments or supply their own hardware. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Oracle secured $67 billion in new contracts, with the majority classified as either prepaid or bring-your-own-hardware arrangements. Oracle currently holds $75 billion in contracts within these categories. Crucially, the company emphasized that these agreements carry “no degradation in margin compared to our other contracts.” As Oracle recognizes greater revenue from its RPO, the company anticipates an improved gross margin profile. This shift should drive stronger earnings growth and lay the groundwork for a significant appreciation in Oracle’s stock price over the coming years.
Analysts forecast Oracle’s earnings to grow by just 5% in fiscal 2027 to $8.06 per share, a deceleration from the 27% non-GAAP earnings-per-share increase recorded in fiscal 2026. This near-term moderation reflects the heavy capital allocation toward AI data center infrastructure. Nevertheless, the company’s bottom-line growth is expected to accelerate subsequently, propelled by its substantial backlog. With earnings-per-share growth projected to climb from 5% this year to 43% in fiscal 2029 (ending in May 2029), the market may reward Oracle with a higher valuation multiple. Currently, the stock trades at 19 times forward earnings, representing a discount to the Nasdaq-100’s forward multiple of 25.
If Oracle’s shares trade in line with the Nasdaq-100’s forward multiple in three years and earnings per share reach $15.69, the stock price could climb to $396. This represents nearly 2.5 times the current share price, indicating substantial upside over the next three years that could position Oracle among the best-performing AI stocks through 2028 and beyond. Larger gains remain possible if Oracle commands a valuation premium, reinforcing the case for investors to accumulate shares while the stock trades at an attractive entry point.