ASML forecasts 110+ EUV lithography tools annually by 2028 as AI chip demand accelerates, signaling capacity commitment to support advanced chip production.

ASML Holding N.V. is examining ways to produce more than 110 EUV lithography systems in 2028, according to JPMorgan analysts following a meeting with CFO Roger Dassen. The company is already nearly sold out for 2027 and expects to produce at least 80 EUV systems that year, meaning output above 110 in 2028 would represent at least a 37.5% increase. JPMorgan noted that the main constraint has shifted from critical component availability toward assembly speed, suggesting ASML believes additional capacity can be unlocked through manufacturing and assembly improvements.

The potential increase is being driven primarily by AI-related demand. ASML's existing EUV machines, which cost roughly $200 million each, are essential for manufacturing leading-edge AI processors, while customers including TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel are expanding advanced-chip capacity. Reuters reported that virtually all of ASML's EUV production capacity is booked through 2027. The company has begun construction of a new Eindhoven facility designed to accelerate tool assembly and eventually accommodate up to 20,000 workers.

The strongest bullish implication is that ASML may convert exceptionally strong demand into higher unit volumes rather than simply relying on price increases. Moving from at least 80 EUV systems in 2027 to more than 110 in 2028 would materially expand the number of high-value systems ASML can monetize. This follows the company's raised 2026 revenue outlook to €43 billion–€45 billion, compared with its previous €36 billion–€40 billion range, while targeting a 54%–56% gross margin. Reuters reported that second-quarter revenue reached €9.3 billion with a 54% gross margin, demonstrating that AI-driven demand is already translating into financial performance.

ASML effectively has no commercial competitor in EUV. JPMorgan estimates that ASML held 94% of the overall lithography market in 2025, while Reuters describes the company as maintaining a monopoly in EUV since the late 2010s. Customers are committing to ASML's next-generation High-NA technology: these machines cost approximately $400 million, can print features about 40% smaller than existing EUV systems, and TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix have all established plans for production adoption. If AI chip demand remains strong enough to support both higher low-NA volumes and eventual High-NA adoption, ASML could see a multi-year increase in system shipments, revenue, and cash generation while strengthening its already exceptional competitive moat.