미국의 대중국 중국산 전력망 장비 대상 행정명령과 관련해, 보고서는 이에 따라 AI 데이터센터 배터리 저장장치가 더 큰 영향을 받게 될 것이라고 지적했다.
For transformers and high-voltage circuit breakers, the order arrives after the market has largely already moved. China supplied just 3% of US transformer imports and under 1% of breaker imports by value in the 12 months to June 2026. South Korea, Mexico and Canada collectively account for 74% of breaker imports and 48% of transformers. Hyosung Heavy Industries disclosed $285.3 billion of ultra-high-voltage transformer contracts with two US hyperscalers on 15 September, confirming that Korean suppliers are winning on the strength of their US manufacturing plants rather than on the order's exclusions alone.
For inverters, the retreat from Chinese supply was already underway. China's reported export value to the US fell 34% between 2022 and 2025 as the US 45X advanced manufacturing production credit pulled inverter assembly onshore. US inverter capacity is set to reach 126 gigawatts by 2028.
The fuller picture on battery storage turns on rulemaking due by 24 December 2026. The order covers battery energy storage systems and expressly includes uninterruptible power supply systems supporting critical infrastructure, extending its reach into the behind-the-meter battery systems data centers use for power resilience. South Korea follows China at 15% of US lithium-ion battery imports and Japan at 13%, with no single alternative capable of absorbing displaced Chinese volume at scale. A critical open question is how broadly the rulemaking defines Covered Foreign Entity ownership. If the Secretary of Energy draws that definition to capture suppliers assembling in South Korea or Mexico using Chinese-controlled components or capital, origins the market currently prices as solutions would themselves become covered, leaving the US short across multiple equipment categories at once.
"The December rulemaking is the order's most consequential moment. If ownership is drawn broadly enough to follow Chinese capital into South Korean or Mexican assembly plants, the supply chain the tech industry is currently relying on to keep AI infrastructure buildout on schedule becomes part of the problem. That outcome is not a certainty, but it is a plausible reading of the text, and procurement teams at hyperscalers should be modelling it now," Hebertson added.