Broadcom의 AI 매출이 221% 급증하면서, 애널리스트들은 회사의 성장이 AI 투자에 지나치게 의존하고 있는 것은 아닌지 의문을 제기하고 있다.

Broadcom's most interesting number this quarter was not its earnings per share. It was the speed at which customers bought more of its custom AI chips. Management reported AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, a 221% increase from the previous year. Just three months earlier, the same business had brought in $10.8 billion. Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) is benefiting from the expansion of AI computing without having to build the data centers itself. Whether customers can keep spending at this pace is another matter.

The semiconductor story is no longer confined to a handful of promising contracts. Broadcom reported Semiconductor Solutions revenue of $20.839 billion for its fiscal third quarter, compared with $9.166 billion a year earlier. CEO Hock Tan attributed the AI acceleration to demand for custom accelerators and networking. Custom chips give Broadcom a distinct role in the market, and its custom AI accelerators and networking continue to drive very strong demand.

The wider company is turning those sales into money shareholders can measure. Total quarterly revenue reached $29.6 billion, compared with $15.952 billion a year earlier. GAAP operating income rose to $15.955 billion from $5.887 billion in the prior-year period. Operating cash flow reached $14.197 billion, and Broadcom reported $13.665 billion of free cash flow after capital expenditures. The comparison with companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure is revealing: Broadcom reports strong cash generation while supplying chips and networking equipment to those same buyers.

VMware also deserves attention in the investment case. Infrastructure Software brought in $8.752 billion, compared with $6.786 billion in the prior-year quarter. It is growing more slowly than semiconductors, but it provides a separate revenue source within a business that investors increasingly associate almost entirely with AI hardware. Broadcom has also introduced VMware products designed for enterprise AI deployment. Announcing those tools does not establish their future financial contribution, but the reported software revenue is firmer evidence.

**Bear Case**

There is a reason not to extrapolate this quarter indefinitely. AI-related semiconductor revenue is growing faster than the rest of Broadcom, which makes the company's performance more exposed to a sustained investment cycle among AI infrastructure buyers. Management expects $21.7 billion of AI semiconductor revenue next quarter, up 236% year over year. That is a forecast, not revenue already earned, and it makes the next set of results unusually consequential.