엔비디아는 27년 2분기 매출이 920억 3천만 달러로 전년 대비 100% 성장할 것으로 예상합니다.

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) reports second-quarter earnings Wednesday after the bell. Wall Street projects revenue of $92.03 billion, a 100% year-over-year increase from $46.14 billion in the same period last year. Analysts forecast second-quarter earnings per share of $2.07, up from $1.04 in the prior year’s second quarter. Shares closed Friday at $214.72, down 0.68%, before gaining 0.31% in extended trading.

Hyperscaler capital expenditure grew 92% year-over-year and 29% quarter-over-quarter in the three months ended June 30, marking the fastest pace since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. Public cloud revenue growth at the three largest cloud vendors also accelerated to its fastest pace ever, rising 43% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter. Their aggregate operating margins expanded by two percentage points to a record 39%. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, argues that market expectations for slowing growth may be too conservative, pointing to these accelerating infrastructure investments as evidence of sustained demand intensity.

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider echoed this view, expecting “a solid quarter with meaningful upside to guidance supported by tight GPU supply/demand trends.” Daniel Newman, CEO of The Futurum Group, told Benzinga that Nvidia is the “cleanest test” of whether AI infrastructure demand has actually peaked. Newman expects revenue could reach $94 billion to $95 billion, potentially exceeding Nvidia’s guidance of $91 billion plus or minus 2%. He projects October-quarter revenue potentially climbing toward $107 billion to $108 billion and eventually topping $110 billion. Newman believes the next phase could become more durable if ACIE growth accelerates rapidly, signaling that enterprises, industrial companies, sovereign customers, and neoclouds are taking on more AI compute demand. U.S. hyperscalers are expected to spend roughly $916 billion on capital expenditures over the next 12 months, with consensus estimates projecting that figure to rise to nearly $1.2 trillion the following year.

Despite the underlying demand strength, Wall Street expects quarterly revenue growth to slow to 13%, down from more than 20% in each of the last three quarters. This projection contrasts sharply with the 92% year-over-year acceleration in hyperscaler capital expenditure, suggesting that while Nvidia’s revenue growth rate may decelerate due to its larger base, customer demand remains at historic highs. Niles noted that Nvidia trades at 17 times projected 2027 earnings, below the S&P 500’s multiple of 19 times. The stock fell 4% over the past two weeks, compared with a 1% dip for the broader index. Newman cautioned that an earnings beat alone may not send Nvidia shares higher. With expectations already elevated, investors could punish the stock if results or forward guidance fail to exceed what has already been priced in. Nvidia shares have declined following five of the company’s past six earnings reports, with the last earnings-related move of 10% or more occurring in February 2024.

Political and regulatory headwinds continue to complicate the investment landscape. Gallup polling shows 71% oppose building data centers locally, a higher opposition rate than the 53% who oppose nuclear reactors. This local resistance could delay hyperscaler deployment timelines and subsequently affect Nvidia's revenue recognition schedule, though near-term capex cycles remain largely insulated from municipal-level pushback.

Compounding regulatory scrutiny, Senator Elizabeth Warren has demanded that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang testify before Congress regarding reports of the company’s technology powering Russian military drones. The call follows a New York Times report stating that Ukrainian investigators discovered Nvidia Jetson Orin computers in the wreckage of Russian drones used in attacks near Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian officials indicated these systems may have enabled autonomous targeting without human oversight. Ukrainian defense intelligence also reported finding an Nvidia Jetson computer on a Russian S-71M Monochrome missile tested in attacks against Ukraine; one drone equipped with such a system reportedly killed three people in Zaporizhzhia on July 6.

Warren took to X to criticize Huang’s scheduling, arguing that his recent public engagements demonstrate he can allocate time for congressional inquiries. “If Jensen Huang has time to attend a $1 million-a-head dinner at Mar-a-Lago and fly across the world to meet with President Xi Jinping, he can find time to testify in front of Congress about reports that NVIDIA technology is powering Russia’s war machine,” Warren said. This marks an escalation from June, when Warren invited Huang to testify before the Senate Banking Committee regarding Nvidia’s China operations and US export controls. Huang declined, citing unavailability, but invited committee members to visit Nvidia’s headquarters in California.

Nvidia responded to the allegations via an emailed statement to Benzinga, clarifying that the Jetson systems found in the drones are consumer-grade products intended for students, developers, and startups. The company emphasized that the Jetson line was not sold directly to Russia, the devices were not designed for military applications, and Nvidia cannot track secondary sales or resale markets. However, the company stated it will take action if it determines any customer is violating US export controls. The divergence between Nvidia’s denial of direct sales and the physical presence of its hardware in active combat zones highlights the limitations of current export control tracking, creating a gap between corporate policy and end-use reality. Following the developments, Nvidia shares closed at $208.48 on Monday, down 2.91%, before rising 0.20% to $208.90 in after-hours trading. Benzinga Edge Rankings place Nvidia in the 99th percentile for growth, with positive short-, medium-, and long-term price trend ratings.