Reuters reports that investors are flocking to Anthropic's IPO but questioning how long its AI lead can last.
**Key points**
- Institutional interest in Anthropic's IPO is outpacing the early days of SpaceX's roadshow. The order book is oversubscribed by a single-digit multiple, which bankers called impressive given the deal's size, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
- Investors' main questions are whether Anthropic can stay ahead as Google catches up, and whether Claude can extend its lead in coding to the broader knowledge-worker market.
- Banks value Anthropic on estimated 2028 revenue of roughly $270 billion to $280 billion. Sell-side forecasts put 2026 revenue at about $52 billion to $53 billion. One investor who passed forecasts 2028 revenue about 30% below the banks' estimate.
- Some investors complained of thin answers and a group meeting with no dial-in line. Anthropic and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.
- Anthropic is selling 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each, raising up to about $64 billion. Pricing is set for Nov. 18, and the stock is expected to trade on Nasdaq as ANT on Nov. 19.
Investors are lining up for Anthropic's initial public offering, but many are asking how long the Claude maker can stay ahead of its rivals, Reuters reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the deal. Institutional interest is outpacing the early days of SpaceX's roadshow, two people familiar with both offerings told Reuters. The order book is oversubscribed by a single-digit multiple, which would be modest for many hot IPOs. Bankers and investors nonetheless called the demand impressive given the deal's size, and they expect the book to grow before the roadshow ends next Wednesday.
Anthropic's amended registration statement offers 825 million Class A shares: 801.4 million from the company and 23.6 million from selling stockholders, at $70 to $78 each. At the top of the range, that is up to about $64.4 billion, in line with the roughly $64 billion deal Reuters said Anthropic is expected to price. The company's IPO website says the price is expected to be set on Nov. 18 and the shares to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT on Nov. 19. Anthropic declined to comment, and Reuters noted that details, including demand, could change.
**Google, and life beyond coding**
The questions investors raised on the roadshow center on durability. They want to know whether Anthropic can keep its lead as competitors such as Alphabet's Google catch up in advanced models, and whether Claude can carry its edge in coding into the much larger market for knowledge workers. Some are also wary of paying a high valuation during a broader shakeout in AI stocks.
Anthropic's own filing names the same risks. It lists Google and OpenAI as its primary competitors, which it says have "substantially greater financial, technical, and marketing resources" and in some cases greater access to compute. It warns that open-weight models could "exert pricing pressure on our offerings," and that because its business is concentrated on its models, any decline in demand or pricing from competition would have "a direct and disproportionate impact" on revenue. The prospectus calls Claude Code "the clearest manifestation" of the AI collaborators it wants to extend to more than a billion knowledge workers.
**How the banks get to a valuation**
Banks on the deal estimate Anthropic's 2028 revenue at roughly $270 billion to $280 billion and apply enterprise-value-to-revenue multiples to that figure, Reuters reported. Sell-side projections put revenue at about $52 billion to $53 billion in 2026 and $135 billion to $137 billion in 2027. Buy-side views diverge. One investor who placed an order projects 2026 and 2027 revenue 10% to 15% above the sell-side figures, while another who did due diligence but stayed out forecasts 2028 revenue about 30% below the banks' estimate.
Anchoring on 2028 is a year closer than the 2029 revenue some investors considered aggressive in SpaceX's valuation case, Reuters said. SpaceX and CrowdStrike are being used as benchmarks, though true peers are hard to find. For reference, Anthropic reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $17.0 billion, more than 12 times the year-earlier figure, along with a 15% adjusted operating margin and a $23.3 billion net loss. The loss includes a large non-cash charge tied to its rising valuation. Its spending commitments are larger still: the filings list about $901 billion in cloud, chip and data center commitments, which chief executive Dario Amodei this week called the company's "deepest business dilemma."
**Complaints about disclosure**
Some investors told Reuters they received little detail. One said the company did not give detailed answers to some questions. One group meeting had no dial-in line, a departure from standard practice, and representatives of lead underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley read mostly from prepared remarks. Anthropic and Morgan Stanley declined to comment, and Goldman did not immediately respond.
The order book is also narrower than it might be. Banks have turned away orders from Chinese and Hong Kong investors over US arms-export rules, Bloomberg has reported. As of Friday, Anthropic had not filed a final prospectus with a price with the SEC.