European renewable deployment will exceed 80% zero-carbon power by 2030, even as renewable targets face deployment delays.

Europe's power sector is forecast to exceed 80% zero carbon generation by 2030, though renewable energy deployment is expected to fall short of the European Union's stated targets, according to Wood Mackenzie's Europe Power Markets Strategic Planning Outlook 2026, which covers 35 national markets through to 2060.

Power demand across these markets is projected to rise 66% between 2025 and 2050, driven by accelerating electrification of transport, industry and heating. Total power demand is expected to reach 4,103 TWh by 2030—11% above 2025 levels—before climbing to 6,152 TWh by 2050. Data centres are forecast to be the primary source of near-term demand growth, while falling electricity prices are expected to accelerate broader electrification from the 2030s onward.

Electric vehicle electricity consumption is forecast to increase from 39 TWh in 2025 to 577 TWh by 2050, a 15-fold rise. Electricity demand for on-grid hydrogen production is expected to grow from nearly zero to 417 TWh over the same period. Heat pump demand is also anticipated to increase substantially, though Wood Mackenzie notes that high upfront costs and the relative price advantage of gas will prevent many markets from meeting their national targets.

Northern Europe is forecast to see the strongest absolute increase in electricity demand, rising 81% by 2050, compared with 52% in Southern Europe.

Solar PV capacity is forecast to reach 637 GWac by 2030, with annual additions of approximately 61 GW, while onshore wind capacity is expected to reach 346 GW with yearly additions around 17 GW. Offshore wind capacity is forecast at 73 GW by 2030, increasing to 148 GW by 2035. However, supply chain constraints and investor uncertainty have delayed deployment compared with earlier expectations.

Across the 35 markets, renewables are expected to account for 65% of electricity supply by 2030 and 83% by 2050. On an EU27 basis, however, the renewable share is forecast at 63.7% in 2030, below the 65% Fit for 55 target and the 69% target under REPowerEU.

Battery storage is emerging as a major investment area. Installed capacity is expected to more than triple from 47 GW to 163 GW by 2030, with Germany, the UK, Italy and Poland accounting for more than half of the growth.

Gas generation is expected to play a larger role than previously forecast during the transition. Wood Mackenzie estimates that gas generation will average 6% above its previous forecast between 2026 and 2040, largely because slower offshore wind deployment creates supply gaps. Gas capacity is forecast to increase 5% to 273 GW by 2030, although utilisation is expected to fall from 27% to 22%. Wood Mackenzie expects gas power plants to increasingly operate as system flexibility rather than providing high volumes of electricity.

Coal generation is forecast to fall from 457 TWh in 2025 to 237 TWh by 2030, while the EU27 coal fleet is expected to exit the generation mix entirely by 2050. Nuclear power is expected to retain a significant role through life extensions, new build programmes and policy changes in markets including Switzerland and Serbia.

Wood Mackenzie expects gas to provide a bridge as coal generation declines and nuclear and renewable capacity expand. Gas generation is forecast to converge with the previous outlook by the mid-2040s before declining, with electricity supplied by gas falling 45% by 2060.

Wood Mackenzie expects increasing electricity demand from the second half of the 2030s to provide greater support for wholesale market prices. However, the rapid expansion of solar generation could increase curtailment risks in markets where grid infrastructure does not keep pace with new capacity. The pace of grid investment and interconnector expansion will remain critical to the timing of the transition, with investment opportunities varying significantly between markets depending on policy certainty, grid capacity and the scale of new electricity demand.

By 2050, zero-carbon sources are expected to account for 93% of Europe's power generation, while electricity demand continues to rise as electrification expands across transport, industry and buildings.

Mohammed Alraood, Research Analyst for Europe Power at Wood Mackenzie, said Europe's power transition was progressing but at different rates across the region: "Gas remains in the mix, not for volume but for the moments renewables cannot deliver."