Bitcoin 가격이 280일 만에 처음으로 채굴 비용을 상회했으며, JPMorgan은 채굴자 매도 압력이 완화되고 있다고 지적했습니다.

Bitcoin has climbed above JPMorgan's estimated average mining cost for the first time in 280 days, suggesting that selling pressure on miners could ease. In a report released on September 24, JPMorgan estimated the average production cost per Bitcoin at approximately $84,948. As of September 25, Bitcoin's price stood at roughly $85,795, slightly above the production cost.

The bank projected that if Bitcoin's price remains above $85,000 for the foreseeable future, financial pressure on miners and the risk of forced selling would diminish. However, it cautioned that this should be interpreted less as a short-term price signal and more as an indicator of a potential shift in miners' funding burdens.

JPMorgan characterized the estimated production cost as a "soft floor." If the price remains below this level for an extended period, miners with heavy electricity and equipment costs would see profitability deteriorate first, potentially leading to increased selling of Bitcoin holdings, mining shutdowns, or exit from the market. Conversely, even if prices recover, not all miners' economics improve immediately.

This return above cost comes after a prolonged industry adjustment. Bitcoin's price remained below production cost for roughly 280 days—longer than the 224-day stretch during the 2018 bear market. During this period, the Bitcoin network's hashrate declined approximately 19% from its October 2025 peak, while mining difficulty fell about 15%. A significant amount of inefficient capacity has already exited the network.

When high-cost miners sell Bitcoin, shut down equipment, or leave the market, competitive pressure on remaining operators eases, potentially improving marginal profitability. The hashrate decline serves both as evidence of discipline among surviving operators and as an indicator of how much capacity had already exited beforehand.

CoinShares estimated the weighted average cash cost for publicly listed Bitcoin miners at approximately $79,995 per BTC as of Q4 2025—close to JPMorgan's estimate. However, the variance among individual companies is substantial. Riot Platforms reported cash costs excluding depreciation of $44,629 per BTC in Q1 2026. In contrast, CoinShares estimated MARA Holdings' total cost at $153,040 and Riot's total cost at $170,366 over the same period. Because measurement methodologies and reporting periods differ, industry-average production costs do not represent individual companies' break-even points.

This disparity demonstrates that Bitcoin falling below $85,000 does not mean all miners face equal selling pressure, nor does rising above it mean all can breathe equally easy. Operators near the cost threshold may see reduced selling pressure, but industry-wide BTC selling may not halt entirely.

Mining economics alone cannot determine selling pressure. According to CoinShares, publicly listed miners have reduced their Bitcoin holdings by more than 15,000 BTC from peak levels. As of Q1 2026, an estimated 15–20% of global mining capacity was unprofitable at reported hash prices. Reserve sales that have already been executed cannot be reversed by a modest price rebound. Miners who have been drawing down reserves during the 280-day period below cost may prioritize liquidity even if Bitcoin's spot price temporarily exceeds average cost estimates.

The shift of miners toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing further complicates selling calculations. Miners are redeploying capacity toward AI revenue streams, which could slow Bitcoin hashrate growth while diversified revenue reduces reliance on Bitcoin sales. Earlier this year, publicly listed Bitcoin miners' realized hashrate fell approximately 15% to 56 EH/s, with a substantial portion of freed-up capacity directed toward AI infrastructure development. These long-term contracts offer more predictable revenue per megawatt of power than Bitcoin mining with diminished profitability.

Ultimately, JPMorgan's $85,000 level is best interpreted as a conditional relief point reached after a prolonged industry adjustment. Whether it translates into actual selling reductions will depend on cost disparities among individual miners, remaining reserves, and the scale of non-mining revenue.