Investors are scrutinizing whether Nvidia’s projected $91 billion quarterly revenue can sustainably justify the current wave of AI infrastructure capital expenditure.
When Nvidia reports its fiscal second-quarter results after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday, August 26, the figures will arrive in a radically different context than any previous earnings cycle. Over the past two weeks, the chipmaker has done more than sell AI systems; it has financed, built, and even powered the infrastructure that will run them. This strategic pivot has prompted Wall Street to simultaneously raise price targets and trim positions. Nvidia’s own guidance projects revenue of approximately $91.0 billion for the quarter ended July 26, while the analyst consensus sits higher at $93.63 billion, with earnings per share expected at $2.13. That gap—modest in absolute terms but highly significant—is the core of the market’s nervousness. Having beaten its own targets for several consecutive quarters, Nvidia has conditioned investors to expect upside surprises. Consequently, a result that merely matches guidance could feel like a disappointment, not because the figure is weak, but because the benchmark has been elevated by the company’s own track record.
The stock closed Friday at €183.78, down 1.1 percent intraday and 5.6 percent over the past week. This pullback leaves shares 9.2 percent below their 52-week high of €202.50, set in mid-May, though the twelve-month return remains a solid 22 percent. With the Relative Strength Index at 48.1, the market appears undecided—neither oversold nor overbought—as traders seem content to hold positions until Wednesday’s report before committing fresh capital.
What distinguishes this earnings cycle from its predecessors is the sheer scale of capital commitments Nvidia has undertaken in just the past two weeks. The company announced a $1.5 billion investment in SB Energy to support data center development in Ohio, positioning itself as the exclusive provider of compute capacity at the planned PORTS-Pike Technology Campus. The initial phase secures 4.25 gigawatts of computing power for OpenAI, with an option to add another 3.75 gigawatts. This capacity will be deployed in stages beginning in 2028.
Alongside that transaction, Nvidia unveiled a financing partnership with major institutional players including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and KKR, designed to mobilize more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure buildout. In effect, the company has integrated a financing arm into its chipmaking operations, underwriting the very ecosystem that consumes its hardware.
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The strategy extends well beyond Ohio. Late last month, Nvidia announced a long-term partnership with Safe Superintelligence, investing its own capital in the venture—a stake Bloomberg valued at $5 billion. For Safe Superintelligence, access to Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin platform promises a substantial multiplication of available compute capacity.
The sell-side has responded favorably to this vertical integration thesis. On August 21, BMO Capital initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a $340 price target, characterizing Nvidia as the leading provider of complete AI systems built on a fully integrated technology stack. Two days earlier, GF Securities’ Jeff Pu raised his price target from $308 to $345, maintaining a “Buy” rating and citing strong demand for the Vera Rubin platform.
These analyst updates arrived during a week of active investor repositioning ahead of the report. The bullish thesis hinges on the durability of demand signals: multi-year infrastructure commitments from OpenAI and other clients suggest Nvidia’s systems are effectively allocated for years to come, even if the Ohio capacity will not begin contributing to revenue until late in the decade.
Yet recent market activity presents a more cautious picture. Insider selling over the past 90 days has been entirely one-directional, comprising 13 transactions totaling approximately $767.2 million. Notable disposals include those by director Mark A. Stevens, who offloaded more than two million shares, alongside position reductions by CFO Colette Kress and Chief Sales Officer Ajay Puri. While such executive trading is routine among large-cap technology firms and does not inherently signal operational distress, the concentration and timing of these sales have given some investors pause.
Recent price action reinforces this caution. The 5.6 percent weekly decline indicates that at least a segment of the market is already de-risking ahead of the earnings release. Furthermore, while the infrastructure partnerships are strategically vital, their near-term earnings impact remains limited: the Ohio capacity will roll out in phases beginning in 2028, offering no immediate contribution to the current quarter’s results.
Nvidia has also demonstrated considerable shareholder generosity. In May, the board authorized an additional $80 billion share repurchase program with no expiration date and increased the quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share. These initiatives followed a record first quarter, during which Nvidia reported revenue of $81.6 billion—an 85 percent year-over-year increase—with the data center segment surging 92 percent to $75.2 billion.
That momentum establishes a demanding baseline for Wednesday’s report. The 50-day moving average of €180.82 sits just below the current price, potentially serving as a technical springboard if results exceed expectations. A beat paired with robust forward guidance could rapidly close the gap to the 52-week high. Conversely, a cautious outlook would fuel narratives of decelerating growth, lending further weight to the recent wave of insider selling.
The earnings conference call is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time. Until then, the market’s neutral positioning suggests investors are waiting patiently for clarity. The central question is no longer whether Nvidia will report growth—it almost certainly will—but whether that growth will be sufficient to justify the elevated expectations forged by years of sustained outperformance.
Additional Nvidia developments continue to emerge. To assess their potential impact on investors, our latest independent analysis examines the latest figures and prevailing market trends.