Samsung is gaining ground on SK Hynix in high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) production, lifting South Korean chip sector earnings forecasts.
The third-quarter operating profit consensus for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix has been revised upward into double-digit growth after three months. Forecasts continue to climb as artificial intelligence data center-driven memory demand exceeds expectations. Within the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle, however, market sentiment is diverging: expectations for Samsung Electronics are rising on the back of its transition to sixth-generation HBM (HBM4), while some analysts suggest SK hynix’s No. 1 market share premium may weaken slightly, creating a noticeable gap in sentiment between the two companies.
As of the 15th, a review of major securities firms and overseas investment bank reports shows Samsung Electronics’ third-quarter operating profit estimate stands at approximately 114 trillion won. This represents an increase of 12.2836 trillion won (12%) from the estimate made three months ago (101.9052 trillion won) and is 28% higher than the company’s record second-quarter result of 89.4 trillion won. SK hynix’s third-quarter operating profit estimate is also elevated at 78.8035 trillion won, up 4% from three months ago (75.7249 trillion won) and 30% higher than its second-quarter figure of 60.5426 trillion won.
According to market researcher TrendForce, contract prices for commodity DRAM in the third quarter are expected to rise 13%–18% sequentially, with NAND flash projected to increase 10%–15%. However, this pace has slowed markedly compared to the first quarter, when DRAM prices were in the 90% range. Analysts note that prices have already reached record highs, and consumers in the PC and smartphone markets have hit their affordability limits. TrendForce highlighted that a significant portion of new capacity is being prioritized for high-value-added products such as HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs), making it difficult to resolve near-term shortages in commodity products. As the three major memory makers pursue a strategy focused on improving product mix rather than expanding volume, earnings will continue to be driven more by prices than by sales volume.
Even within the same industry boom, the securities market views the two Korean giants differently. Investors are closely tracking Samsung Electronics’ HBM4 sales share, which expanded from 5% in the first quarter to approximately 35% in the second quarter, alongside improving production yields. SK hynix, by contrast, maintains its No. 1 competitiveness in the broader HBM market, though there are concerns that Samsung’s improved HBM4 mass production could dilute the top-share supplier premium SK hynix has historically enjoyed. For instance, LS Securities initially forecast SK hynix’s HBM operating margin at around 80% for 2027 but recently revised that estimate downward to approximately 60%. Nevertheless, industry assessments maintain that this reflects a narrowing competitive gap rather than a reversal of the landscape.
A key variable looming over these projections is the won-dollar exchange rate. Citi Securities recently lowered SK hynix’s third-quarter operating profit estimate to 74 trillion won from 76.7 trillion won, citing currency headwinds. This figure falls below the FnGuide consensus of 78.7166 trillion won, and the firm also revised its annual operating profit forecast for SK hynix down to 254.2 trillion won from 261.1 trillion won. Unlike memory prices, which are denominated in dollars, Samsung Electronics’ and SK hynix’s income statements are converted into won, meaning exchange-rate fluctuations can significantly sway earnings expectations. Industry watchers point to Micron Technology’s upcoming earnings announcement as a watershed moment that will reconfirm the third-quarter outlook. Micron plans to report results for fiscal year 2026 fourth quarter (June–August) on the 30th, with revenue guidance set at $49 billion–$51 billion. Whether Micron exceeds this guidance will serve as a barometer for the resilience of AI-driven memory demand and acts as a leading indicator ahead of Samsung Electronics’ and SK hynix’s own third-quarter releases. However, because Micron’s results are reported in dollars, some analysts caution that even a beat may not fully translate to Samsung and SK hynix due to the stronger won.
Industry observers remain divided on how to interpret the current trajectory. Some argue that attention should focus more on the quality of earnings than on a deceleration in the growth rate, while others emphasize that both base effects and exchange-rate variables must be factored into the analysis. A domestic securities firm official noted, “The slowdown in semiconductor earnings growth rate is a trend driven by base effects,” but added, “In valuations, the most important indicators are not earnings growth rate but earnings stability and profitability, and semiconductors' return on equity (ROE) and operating margin will far exceed past cycles in 2026 and 2027.”