Applied Materials CEO는 반도체 장비 고객사의 탄탄한 주문 현황을 근거로 AI 칩 붐이 아직 끝나지 않았다고 단언했다.

Applied Materials CEO Gary Dickerson arrived at Goldman's Copia Conference with a compelling exhibit: customer order books extending years into the future. Chipmakers do not commit two years of capital equipment orders casually. Speaking with David Faber, Dickerson emphasized that the company is "approaching 40% growth this year, and it's really all driven by AI compute demand." He expects momentum to persist: "absolutely strong growth in 26, we see very strong growth in 27 and for many years going into the future."

Applied manufactures the deposition, etch, ion implant, and process control tools that fabrication plants use to build transistors layer by layer. Every leading-edge foundry and memory maker relies on Applied, positioning the company upstream of every NVIDIA accelerator, HBM stack, and advanced package. Dickerson argues that AI has fundamentally altered the mix. Applied identifies leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging as the three fastest-growing segments, expected to represent roughly 80% of wafer fab equipment growth in 2026 and 2027.

The August quarter produced revenue of $9.12 billion, up 24.8% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.50. October quarter guidance projects revenue near $10.25 billion. CFO Brice Hill disclosed that customer visibility now extends in some cases to 2030, with the company preparing to double its quarterly system output by 2028. "AI is really the most disruptive technology I've seen in my lifetime," Dickerson told Faber. "We have these eight quarter forecasts from our customers, longer commitments from our customers in terms of our tool shipments."

Memory has emerged as the most visible AI beneficiary in Applied's results. DRAM revenue climbed from 22% to 26% of semiconductor systems revenue, while DRAM revenue including HBM packaging grew 52% year over year to record levels. Dickerson stated, "DRAM is absolutely key. And again, Applied is number one. Our size is about the same as the next two competitors combined."

Advanced packaging, which stacks and bonds the chiplets AI accelerators require, is expected to grow more than 70% in calendar 2026. Applied holds the overall leadership position with strengths in HBM and 3D chiplet stacking.

Peer disclosures corroborate this demand picture. Lam Research reported June-quarter revenue of $6.72 billion, up 30.0% year over year, with CEO Tim Archer projecting a third consecutive year of outperformance in 2026. Lam raised its calendar 2026 WFE outlook to the low $150 billion range, up from $140 billion. KLA Corporation posted record revenue of $3.66 billion and disclosed remaining performance obligations of approximately $12.5 billion, with CEO Rick Wallace citing accelerating momentum in the second half of 2026 and continuing into 2027.

ASML Holding provides the most convincing corroboration as the sole EUV lithography supplier. CEO Christophe Fouquet announced plans to add 30% to ASML's 2026 low NA EUV capacity of around 65 units for 2027, with another 30% increase under investigation for 2028. When four equipment suppliers raise outlooks in the same quarter citing the same foundries, the cycle has proven real.

Applied trades at a trailing P/E of 41x and forward P/E of 26x at $468.85 per share. Shares have gained 188.38% over the past year but sit below the 52-week high of $738.88 and have declined 10.11% over the past month. Cyclical risk warrants consideration: equipment represents the most volatile link in the semiconductor supply chain, forecasts are not purchase orders, and clean-room availability can delay revenue recognition even with firm customer intent. Compared with peers, Applied boasts the broadest exposure across deposition, etch, implant, packaging, and services. While an equipment supplier offers a more cyclical way to own AI infrastructure than a chip designer, Dickerson's eight-quarter visibility supports the near-term case. The stock price already reflects much of this outlook; risk-reward likely improves on any pullback toward the 200-day moving average of $407.06.