Nebius의 대규모 자본지출 추진이 압박에 직면하고 있으며, 고객 선결제가 잠재적 완화 메커니즘으로 제시되고 있습니다.

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is pursuing an aggressive capacity expansion strategy as demand for AI infrastructure remains robust. The company spent nearly $5.7 billion in capital expenditures during the second quarter of 2026 on GPUs, GPU-related hardware, and data center footprint expansion. Management has reaffirmed its 2026 capex guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion, underscoring the investment intensity required to support its growth ambitions.

The company has raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts and plans to build more than 1 gigawatt of new capacity in 2027. Management continues to expect 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of connected power in 2026.

Customer prepayments represent a significant funding mechanism for this buildout. Nearly 70% of second-quarter deals included upfront prepayments, and customer prepayments are expected to provide more than $9 billion of funding in 2026. The prepayment terms secured in the second quarter cover approximately 50 percent to 60 percent of associated capex, thereby reducing dependence on debt and equity financing.

Nebius generated $2.3 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter and held $8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026. The company is leveraging multiple funding sources to support capacity expansion. Under its at-the-market equity program, NBIS issued 12.7 million Class A shares, generating gross proceeds of approximately $2.8 billion in the second quarter, with 12.3 million shares remaining available under the program.

Nebius is also supplementing these sources with asset-backed financing. A $775 million debt facility, priced at SOFR plus 250 basis points, is backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer. Management sees its roughly $40 billion committed backlog as supporting further asset-backed financing opportunities.

Overall, customer prepayments, operating cash flow, and contracted backlog provide meaningful support for Nebius' elevated investment program. Still, the payoff hinges on execution, continued AI demand, and the ability to scale profitably amid increasing competition from companies like CoreWeave (CRWV) and tech giants such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon.

Microsoft is a structurally dominant force in the technology space. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 capex stood at $41 billion, with roughly two-thirds going toward short-lived assets—primarily CPUs and GPUs—and the remainder for long-lived assets. Management has guided capex to exceed $50 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, with the company projecting fiscal 2027 capex to increase year over year. Following a lease-accounting-related shift, Microsoft has now put its calendar 2026 capex expectation at approximately $175 billion. Microsoft added 31 data centers across five continents during the quarter and another 1 gigawatt of capacity, while expecting to double overall capacity within two years.

CoreWeave is another rapidly growing AI infrastructure company aggressively expanding its capacity to meet increasing customer demand. 2026 capital expenditures are now projected to be between $35 billion and $39 billion, up from $31 billion to $35 billion. CoreWeave recorded capex of $9.4 billion while construction in progress increased sequentially to $11.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Management noted that under a typical five-year contract, capex is front-loaded and requires a combination of debt, customer prepayments, and corporate-level capital to fund buildouts.

Nebius stock has declined 12 percent in the past month compared with the Internet–Software and Services industry's decline of 4.2 percent. NBIS shares are trading at a 12-month forward price-to-sales multiple of 5.95X, above the Internet Software Services industry's 4.13X. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS' earnings for 2026 has been revised upward over the past 60 days. NBIS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).