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UnitedHealth (UNH) is scheduled to announce its third-quarter earnings on October 13. Ahead of the report, Piper Sandler analyst Jessica Tassan reiterated a Buy rating on UNH stock after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published its Medicare 2027 Part C & D Star Ratings. Meanwhile, TD Cowen analyst Ryan Langston reiterated a Hold rating on UNH stock and lowered his price target to $402 from $430.
Langston expects UnitedHealth to provide its initial 2027 outlook on its Q3 earnings call. In line with UNH's historical trends, he expects 2027 EPS growth guidance to match or fall below the consensus estimate of 14%.
Wall Street expects UNH to report Q3 earnings per share of $4.15, reflecting 42.1% year-over-year growth. Revenue is expected to decline about 1.6% to $111.31 billion.
**Piper Sandler Stays Bullish on UNH After Latest Ratings**
Tassan noted that the new 2027 Star Ratings, based on CMS's September 2026 enrollment data, show that the share of members in contracts with 4.0+ Stars is 24.5% at Alignment Healthcare (ALHC), 69.3% at CVS Health (CVS), 93.4% at Humana (HUM), and 66.8% at UnitedHealth.
The analyst believes UNH's Star Ratings reflect resilience and are "underappreciated." Trading at about 14x the 2028 adjusted EPS estimate, UNH is, in Tassan's view, the "most actionable" Medicare Advantage (MA) organization in her firm's coverage. "We would be buyers of the stock into 3Q26," said Tassan.
**TD Cowen's Views Ahead of UNH's Q3 Earnings**
Langston believes the Q3 2026 consensus of an 89.9% medical loss ratio (MLR) and EPS estimates are "more than achievable," with potential upside from the Optum Health business. He noted that on the Q2 2026 earnings call, management said EPS in the second half is expected to be one-third of full-year earnings, with "slightly more" EPS in Q3 2026 than in the fourth quarter.
Langston also highlighted that Optum Health's Q3 consensus EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) estimate of $299 million compares with guidance of about $150 million. However, in the first half, Optum Health's EBIT beat consensus by nearly $630 million on average.
Furthermore, Langston noted that at a mid-September conference, management said favorable Q2 momentum and the durability of the medical cost trend had continued into the third quarter, supporting confidence in the underlying earnings path.
Commenting on the latest Star Ratings, Langston said UnitedHealth's Star Ratings declined as expected. This could create a $13 per-member-per-month revenue headwind in 2028, or about $1.5 billion in revenue impact.
**Is UNH a Good Stock to Buy Now?**
Heading into Q3 2026 earnings, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on UnitedHealth stock, based on 17 Buy ratings and four Holds. The average UNH price target of $485 implies about 28% upside potential. UNH stock has risen 17% year to date.