미국 전력망 신뢰성 우려로 텍사스에서 데이터센터 신규 건설 모라토리엄(일시 중단)을 논의하는 움직임이 일고 있다.

The article from OilPrice.com raises concerns about the declining reliability of the U.S. power grid. It suggests that cheaper storage options could incentivize customers to leave the grid, which could leave utilities primarily serving those unable to afford off-grid solutions. With utility-scale battery capacity reaching significant levels, the potential for increased grid defection has become a topic of discussion, and the implications appear to be resonating across various sectors, including the data center industry in Texas.

Prediction markets reflect these concerns. The market for a potential Texas data center moratorium by the end of 2026 currently shows a 2% probability. This is in light of warnings from credible sources, such as OilPrice.com, that declining grid reliability could lead to regulatory actions in the state. A moratorium has been under consideration because of increased demand and strain on the grid from data centers and other infrastructure.

**Key Takeaways**

- Market activity suggests increased attention to the reliability of the U.S. power grid, consistent with concerns about potential grid defection.

- The Texas data center moratorium market shows a low probability, but the discussion indicates that regulatory actions could still emerge.

- Increasing utility-scale battery capacity may indicate a shift toward more customer-owned backup systems, affecting grid reliance.

**What to Watch**

Watch for regulatory developments from Texas authorities that could affect the data center industry, as well as any executive orders or legislative actions. Observations of major utilities filing for pauses in interconnections could be consistent with a move toward a moratorium. Reports from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) on the state of the grid may also influence market perceptions and pricing. Further increases in battery storage capacity and customer defection trends will be critical to monitor.

**Term Structure**

| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h |

|---|---|---|---|

| January 1 2027 | 2% | — | — |

| January 1 2028 | 20.5% | — | — |

| July 1 2027 | 12.5% | — | — |

| January 1 2029 | 31.5% | — | — |