TrendForce는 AI 기반 HBM 수요에도 불구하고 PC 교체 사이클이 여전히 부진한 가운데, 3분기 일반 DRAM 계약 가격이 13~18% 상승할 것으로 전망했다.

The rapid ascent in memory prices appears to be moderating as PC and smartphone buyers approach their budget limits. Taiwanese market research firm TrendForce estimates that rising DRAM contract prices drove a 59.5 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in industry revenue to $154.73 billion in calendar Q2. Looking ahead, TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract price growth to moderate to 13 to 18 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3. This slowdown reflects a shift in demand away from high-capacity RDIMMs toward lower-capacity products, alongside the limited ability of PC and smartphone customers to absorb further price increases. Even at this reduced pace, the projected increase remains substantial. TrendForce warns that supplier inventories remain at historic lows and total bit shipments are expected to grow only modestly, indicating that while prices are climbing more slowly, supply constraints will likely persist in the foreseeable future.

The pricing outlook follows a separate warning from market intelligence firm Context regarding European PC shipments, which are projected to decline sharply as rising component costs drive up system prices. Context forecasts a year-on-year drop in laptop shipments of 6.4 percent in Q3, followed by a 20 percent decline in Q4. The outlook is steeper for desktops, with shipments expected to fall approximately 20 percent in Q3 and nearly 30 percent in Q4. Despite these declining volumes, PC manufacturers have maintained profitability, as higher selling prices have so far offset the reduction in unit sales. As previously noted by The Register, Lenovo successfully navigated the memory crisis by pivoting toward premium devices. Corporate buyers are extending device refresh cycles wherever possible, purchasing new PCs only when upgrades are strictly necessary. “The PC refresh cycle has not disappeared, but the economics around it have changed,” said Context senior analyst Marie-Christine Pygott. “For the channel, the opportunity is increasingly about helping customers prioritize where refreshes are essential, where devices can remain in service for longer and where investment in newer, more capable systems makes commercial sense.”

Regarding AI PCs, which manufacturers had hoped would catalyze a broad upgrade wave, Context notes that the impending end of Windows 10 support has been the primary catalyst for recent purchasing activity. Although AI-capable PCs represent an increasing share of systems entering the European supply chain, this trend largely stems from AI functionality becoming standard in newer hardware rather than driving distinct upgrade demand. Meanwhile, TrendForce reports that the three leading memory manufacturers continue to prioritize high-end products for the AI market. Samsung has capitalized on its early transition into HBM4 mass production, while SK hynix maintains the highest proportion of HBM within its total bit shipments among the top three suppliers. Micron is similarly focusing on higher-priced server DRAM. Consequently, second-tier manufacturers such as Nanya, Winbond, and PSMC are tasked with fulfilling demand for mature-process products, including DDR4 and DDR3.