Anthropic의 기밀 공시서는 2029년까지 컴퓨팅 용량에 대한 최대 $84.5B의 잠재적 약정을 공개했으며, 이전의 $45B 규모보다 2배 이상이다.

Anthropic is preparing to spend more on rented computing power than most countries collect in taxes. A confidential IPO prospectus dated around September 29, 2026 reveals the company could pay up to $84.5 billion to Elon Musk's xAI for NVIDIA-based compute through 2029, secured through SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center.

To put this in perspective: $84.5 billion over roughly three years works out to an estimated $15 billion annually by May 2029, with monthly payments ramping up to approximately $1.25 billion once fully operational.

The partnership traces back to May 2026, when Anthropic secured exclusive access to Colossus 1, a SpaceX facility housing more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs running on over 300 megawatts of power.

One clause stands out. The bulk of this commitment is cancelable on just 90 days' notice—an unusually short cancellation window for a contract measured in tens of billions. This contrasts sharply with Anthropic's more binding agreements with Google, Amazon, and Microsoft.

Yet the xAI deal is only one line in a much longer ledger. Anthropic's prospectus discloses total AI infrastructure commitments exceeding $518 billion over the next decade, spanning its full roster of compute and cloud partners.

Roughly 80% of those commitments are classified as non-cancelable or usage-independent, meaning Anthropic owes the money whether or not it actually uses the compute. The xAI deal, sitting in the cancelable 20%, represents the flexible portion of an otherwise rigid balance sheet.

The prospectus also reveals that Anthropic and SpaceX are in exploratory discussions around multi-gigawatt orbital AI compute capacity. Its inclusion in an IPO document suggests the company views this as a serious long-term direction rather than a science project.

An IPO prospectus is, at its core, a sales document. Every data point Anthropic chose to include tells a story the company wants potential investors to believe.

The narrative is clear: Anthropic has locked in relationships with xAI, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft simultaneously, spreading compute across multiple providers while maintaining flexibility through cancelable terms where possible.

But the downside is equally visible. Five hundred and eighteen billion dollars in infrastructure commitments represents substantial future cash outflow, and 80% of it cannot easily be unwound.