McKinsey 연구는 데이터 센터 시장의 역설을 밝힌다: 과잉 건설(용량 과잉 확대)과 용량 부족(실제 수요가 건설 속도를 초과함)이 동시에 진행되고 있다.

Data center construction has become a critical concern for builders, investors, and policymakers. The primary worry is overbuild—that infrastructure could expand too rapidly and oversupply the market. However, a July McKinsey study argues that even if construction falters or underperforms, the associated power grid improvements will still provide net benefits.

According to the research, data center operators predominantly prefer onsite or hybrid energy generation (20% and 45%, respectively). Projections indicate that by 2030, 64% of operator energy will come from natural gas, with renewables and nuclear accounting for 23% and 13% respectively.

Sam DeFabrizio, a McKinsey partner and study coauthor, emphasized that demand remains strong and fundamentally drives the sector. "We are undersupplied because we have players that are trying to put GPUs into a powered shell today that can't get the power," he said. "When you're doing infrastructure development, which often has a 10-, 15-, 20-year time horizon, sometimes more, you have to feel confident that that demand will be maintained. What we try to do in some of the charts is say we're expecting a 5x growth over the next five or over the next 10 years of total data center demand in the US."

This market confidence is shared by Brian Marconi and Sasibeh Beyene, partners at CohnReznick, an accounting firm specializing in data center advisory. They acknowledge that energy companies face genuine challenges managing overbuild risk, but view them as solvable. Rather than relying solely on metered solutions—which depend on measured energy production rather than onsite generation—companies must pursue diverse energy production approaches.

"A lot of data center developers that are currently contemplating behind the meter power generation solutions, and that's been powered by natural gas or other sources of energy," Beyene said. "That's become an attractive alternative." Developers increasingly pursue alternative fuels, whether renewables or expanded natural gas use. Unused generated energy can be returned to the grid, providing a hedge against overbuild concerns and yielding net benefits for developers.

Marconi noted that data centers represent just one component of growing compute infrastructure needs. "As things continue to go this route of needing compute, thinking outside of AI, there's a number of different things like self-driving vehicles and things like that that will need more and more compute power."

The current boom itself drives innovation. With demand far exceeding supply, developers and investors are more willing to experiment and explore new energy solutions. DeFabrizio observed: "Because demand is so much higher than supply, and people are willing to take a bet to get power in any way possible, we're seeing an opportunity to underwrite some of the energy investments that would historically require a large amount of public sector capital. We're adding tools to a belt in terms of how to supply energy across the country."