Anthropic과 OpenAI를 포함한 AI 랩들의 모델 개발 둔화 요청이 향후 칩 수요에 대한 불확실성을 야기하고 반도체 주식 평가를 압박하고 있다.
Artificial intelligence executives' calls to slow development of the technology are likely to weigh on chipmaker and supply-chain stocks in the near term, but will probably have limited long-term impact as spending on computing infrastructure remains strong, market watchers say.
Semiconductor makers and other AI-linked stocks may bear the brunt of any initial sell-off following Monday (September 14), while investors assess whether a more cautious approach to developing advanced models will crimp earnings. Still, with demand for chips, energy, and computing power continuing to outstrip supply, any weakness may prove short-lived.
Calls for restraint have grown in the industry. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei announced on Saturday that the company would introduce additional safeguards, including independent third-party evaluations, and urged the broader industry to slow the pace of development of their most advanced models. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman backed the proposal, while xAI's Elon Musk said "Dario is right."
Investors are doubtful these developments will have lasting effects. Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments in Singapore, argued: "It may cause some short-term pressure, but it's unlikely to derail the longer-term AI trade. AI development is still at a relatively early stage, and I'm not sure the rest of the ecosystem is willing to accept the current pecking order and slow down while the technology continues to evolve so rapidly."
Concerns over the vast sums being poured into AI have already weighed on technology stocks as investors question whether earnings can justify soaring infrastructure costs. High-valuation shares linked to the technology remain particularly vulnerable, with signs of increased spending or weaker returns triggering sell-offs. The Nasdaq 100 has dropped more than 4 per cent from its June record, US chip shares have slumped 14 per cent, and Asian tech stocks have slid almost 8 per cent, while the S&P 500 and MSCI's gauge of global shares have each edged up about 0.6 per cent over the same period.
Some investors contend that a slower pace of AI development could ultimately benefit the industry by giving companies more time to extract returns from infrastructure already being built. "The three CEOs agreeing to pace things does not really change the money being spent on chips, power and infrastructure," said Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X Management in Sydney. "In fact, it extends the development timeline. If commercialisation and adoption keep growing while the pace of new capability eases off a bit, that actually helps the shift from spending money to build things towards making money from what's already built—for example, monetisation."
Sentiment toward Asian tech was already strained as traders firmed bets on a US Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16 and anticipated increases in global borrowing costs, threatening profit margins. Tech valuations may face additional scrutiny because they assume not only strong demand but a relentless pace of model development, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.
However, the market downturn is likely to be short-lived. A push for safeguards may actually drive more investment in cybersecurity and AI monitoring tools. Memory, networking, cooling, and power equipment companies are likely protected by projects already in development. "Demand for computing power and AI adoption does not disappear because additional safeguards are introduced," Chanana said. "For investors, responsible development may make the AI opportunity more durable, even if the pace of progress becomes slightly more measured."
SK Hynix contracts started sliding early Sunday on Hyperliquid, a blockchain-based platform for round-the-clock stock and asset betting via perpetual futures. By 2 p.m. Singapore time, the contracts were trading down roughly 2.5 per cent for the day.