PJM (largest US grid operator) warns that reliability could fail by 2030 if data-center demand growth continues at current pace; worst-case loss-of-load expectation is 100x worse than planning criterion.
The PJM Interconnection faces a significant reliability crisis by 2030 if data center growth continues unchecked, according to a study commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. The analysis, produced by Synapse Energy Economics, Mondre Energy, and Aspen Technologies, projects that PJM could experience a "loss of load expectation," or LOLE, between six and 100 times worse than the grid operator's planning criterion.
The independent analysis evaluated load projections and resource adequacy under multiple scenarios spanning 2027 through 2030. In both a reference scenario relying on PJM's 2026 load forecast and a high-load, low-supply scenario, PJM's planning criteria for resource adequacy are not met. Only under a scenario with no new data centers can the region achieve PJM's target LOLE of 0.1 days per year—a standard designed to limit potential electricity shortages to approximately one event every ten years.
In the reference scenario, the modeled 2030 LOLE is 0.59, nearly six times worse than PJM's planning criterion. Under a "worst-case future" scenario with higher-than-expected load additions and constrained resource deployment, the modeled LOLE reaches 13.20—over 100 times worse than the planning criterion—indicating an expectation of more than 13 days with loss of load events per year. "As in the Reference scenario, these reliability issues are largely due to surging data center additions," the study concluded.
PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank characterized the findings as a stark warning. "Electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable," he said. "We need urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy that makes sure our supply of electricity keeps pace with demand."
PJM acknowledged that new data center loads are growing faster than supply. "PJM has taken a number of actions to both increase electricity supply and manage new demand in line with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge taken by data center developers to shield residential customers and other ratepayers from bearing reliability risks or cost increases associated with data center development," said Jeff Shields, PJM's senior manager of external communications.
The reference scenario anticipates Pennsylvania remaining a net energy exporter through the forecast period, though with declining margins. Exports are projected to decrease from about 91 TWh in 2025 to about 69 TWh by 2035 and 38 TWh by 2040. Under the high-load, low-supply scenario, Pennsylvania becomes a net importer of 5 TWh by 2040. Because this scenario projects significant unmet load in 2031 and later years, substantial load will remain unmet in 2035 and 2040 due to insufficient regional generation capacity.
Governor Josh Shapiro recently issued an executive order offering preferential permitting to data center projects with peak demand exceeding 25 MW, contingent on commitments to source electricity from new power supplies. The PUC voted unanimously to approve two motions concerning data center development and ratemaking, directing staff to propose updates to the state's emergency curtailment rules and organize a technical conference on cost allocation for data centers.
Both PJM and the U.S. Department of Energy have implemented several initiatives to address resource adequacy concerns, including interconnection queue reform and reliability backstop procurement. PJM and its stakeholders are currently discussing additional initiatives such as load forecasting improvements. The DOE has also committed to keeping certain coal-fired power plants online beyond their planned retirement dates to maintain resource supply in the region.