Texas data center grid approval pause puts approximately 20% of US infrastructure pipeline at risk of delay

Texas's data center moratorium poses significant risks to the state's infrastructure expansion. According to Bloomberg NEF, the longer the pause remains in place, the greater the threat to Texas's data center growth trajectory. The financial implications could be "immense," with BNEF forecasting approximately 1.2 GW of total ERCOT data center additions between the second quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2027. Any delays in energization during this period could put billions of dollars of data center leasing revenue at risk, as AI computing capacity generates around $1.76 billion per gigawatt per month. "The implied revenue at risk for data centers runs into many billions of dollars if interconnection policy changes in the next term," BNEF said.

The scope of the challenge is substantial. ERCOT's interconnection queue contains approximately 474 GW in total requests, with Governor Abbott noting that roughly 90 percent of new power requests come from data centers. This queue exceeds five times ERCOT's peak demand record, underscoring both the scale of the proposed buildout and the potential for duplicative or excessive requests. BNEF expects that about 8.25 GW of additional data center capacity will come online in ERCOT through 2030, bringing total capacity to more than 17 GW. More than 70 percent of approximately 50 GW of Texas data center projects tracked by BNEF remain in early stages of development.

BNEF's 2030 forecast "could be revised significantly higher" if ERCOT's initial study of large load projects, known as Batch Zero, proceeds as planned—though the new audit could create delays. Abbott's audit will examine whether data centers are providing their own power or relying on the grid, their water usage, and which projects utilize state or federal assistance including tax incentives, grants, or abatements. "Any data center project that fails to comply with the verification and audit process to protect the reliability and resilience of the Texas electric grid must be denied," the governor stated in his letter.

Texas joins New York, which in July halted new data center approvals for up to a year while developing new development rules.