Nvidia stock surged as US export controls drive Southeast Asia gray-market demand for H200 and B200 chips.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is trading at $220.91, gaining 4.04% on the day. The price sits above its key moving averages, indicating sustained support across multiple timeframes.

The implementation of US export controls has triggered the rise of a multi-billion-dollar gray market for AI chips in Southeast Asia. This action has prompted firms such as Moonshot and Alibaba to access Nvidia-based compute through proxy cloud services, indicating that regulatory barriers are increasing overseas demand via unofficial channels. The ongoing workarounds highlight the persistent appeal of Nvidia's technology despite tightened direct access in key international markets.

Technical analysis on the H4 chart positions NVDA above the MA-20 at $202.89 and MA-50 at $203.11, with the daily MA-200 well below at $193.40. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily timeframe sits at $202.21, reinforcing immediate support. Momentum signals remain mixed: RSI is at 61.66 (buy), and CCI supports further upside, while Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power mark overbought conditions that may curb near-term gains. MACD and ADX are neutral; the Awesome Oscillator delivers strong bullish confirmation.

Over the next two to three trading days, NVDA is forecast to fluctuate within a volatility band of $210.15 to $231.67. The likelihood of an upward move is estimated at 75%, compared to 25% odds for a decline. Baseline expectations point to consolidation inside this range, while a break above $231.67 would confirm a new bullish scenario. Conversely, a drop below $210.15 would be needed to confirm a bearish reversal.

Earlier analysis noted that Nvidia was benefiting from AI-driven demand and positive sector read-throughs, even as selective investor response to earnings and spending weighed on peers. The current assessment reinforces Nvidia's resilience in the face of global regulatory constraints, with upcoming price action hinging on whether the $231.67 resistance or $210.15 support is decisively breached.