대만의 'DRAM 대부'는 중국 CXMT가 메모리 시장에 공급 물량을 쏟아낼 것이라고 주장한다.

CXMT could soon rival the big three DRAM producers.

Charles Kao (Gao Qiquan), the "Godfather of Taiwan's DRAM industry," has publicly stated that he expects China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) to rapidly increase its DRAM production, flooding the market with DRAM "in two years."

CXMT is expanding quickly, so much so that some expect it to have as many DRAM wafer starts as Micron by the end of this year. However, Micron is expected to achieve higher DRAM yields and produce more DRAM dies per wafer, giving it a substantial DRAM productivity advantage. That said, as more manufacturing sites come online, CXMT's DRAM production will increase dramatically.

While Kao expects CXMT to remain behind its competitors technologically, he expects the company to make up for it with volume. This could completely change the DRAM market, creating a potential oversupply once mass production begins. "It will still lag behind. But when its volume is large, it's terrifying!" Kao warned.

When asked about CXMT's expanding production capacity, Kao said, "In about two years! Mass production will begin in two years." With several sites coming online, CXMT will dramatically boost its memory production and flood the market. This could sharply reduce DRAM prices. Even if CXMT's memory is used mostly in the domestic Chinese market, it would free up DRAM from other suppliers for use elsewhere.

CXMT is on track to become one of the world's largest DRAM producers, and its increased production could end the DRAM supply crisis. That said, it remains to be seen what the demand environment will be like in 2028. Two years is a long time, especially within the tech world. Will today's AI-driven demand still exist then? If it does, will CXMT's increased production be enough to lower prices, or will DRAM demand be truly insatiable?