US natural gas production on track for record 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026, exceeding prior peak.
We forecast U.S. marketed natural gas production will average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
In the first half of 2026, marketed natural gas production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d, representing a 4% increase (4.6 Bcf/d) over the same period in 2025. The expansion is concentrated primarily in two regions: the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, and the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas.
The United States has been the world's largest natural gas producer from 2009 through 2024, the most recent year for which global production data is available.
**Permian Region Growth**
Permian gas production is forecast to average 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, representing a 6% increase from 2025 levels. In this region, natural gas production is driven primarily by associated gas—gas produced during crude oil extraction—and is supported by crude oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose from an average of $65 per barrel in 2025 to $84 per barrel through July 2026, exceeding the region's breakeven prices. Operators in the Midland Basin require $69 per barrel and those in the Delaware Basin require $63 per barrel to cover costs, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Energy survey. These elevated prices support oil-directed drilling and the resulting growth in both crude oil and natural gas production.
Additionally, a steadily increasing gas-to-oil ratio in the Permian contributes to natural gas growth. As production removes fluids from the reservoir, pressure declines, making natural gas easier to produce than crude oil at lower pressures, which drives the ratio upward.
**Haynesville Region Expansion**
Natural gas production in the Haynesville region increased by 1.1 Bcf/d (7%) in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, with full-year growth forecast at 9% (1.3 Bcf/d). The Haynesville formation, ranging from 10,500 to 13,500 feet deep, is among the deepest in the U.S. Lower 48 states, resulting in higher drilling and development costs.
Unlike Permian operators who drill primarily for oil, Haynesville operators focus on natural gas extraction, making production driven by the Henry Hub benchmark price. We forecast the Henry Hub spot price will fall by 2% to average $3.44 per million British thermal units in 2026. At this price level, drilling remains economical despite the region's deeper wells and elevated development costs. The Haynesville's proximity to liquefied natural gas export terminals and major industrial consumers along the U.S. Gulf Coast continues to attract active drilling operations.