Memory analysts project HBM super-cycle extension through 2030 as AI data center demand continues to outpace supply.

Predictions have emerged that the memory semiconductor super cycle could extend beyond the initially expected 2028 timeline through 2029–2030. While memory companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron have launched massive equipment investments in response to artificial intelligence demand, a 3–5 year lag between investment and production means supply shortages will persist in the near term, even as memory demand from AI data centers continues to accelerate.

According to global consulting firm Deloitte, the combined capital expenditure of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron for 2027 is projected to reach $146 billion (approximately 209 trillion Korean won)—roughly 3.4 times the $43 billion invested three years earlier in 2024. This represents more than half (56%) of the projected $260 billion total semiconductor equipment investment for 2027. Memory companies are aggressively expanding their production capacity.

However, the timeline from investment to new supply remains a significant bottleneck. Factory construction and equipment installation typically require 3–5 years, making it difficult to resolve supply shortages in the near term. Deloitte stated: "Despite the rapid expansion of equipment investments by memory companies, new, additional supply will be difficult until 2029–2030."

Meanwhile, memory demand continues to surge. According to semiconductor analysis firm SemiAnalysis, memory accounts for 30% of hyperscalers' (large data center operators') equipment investment this year—roughly four times the 8% share seen in 2023–2024. Next year, this proportion is expected to climb to 36%.

In 2027, hyperscalers' total capital expenditure is projected to reach $1.14 trillion, with approximately $410 billion allocated to memory purchases. SemiAnalysis forecasts that "DRAM prices will more than double in 2026 and record double-digit growth rates next year as well," and that "structural supply shortages for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are expected to continue until 2027."

The semiconductor industry initially expected memory supply shortages to ease starting in 2028. However, recent assessments suggest they could persist well beyond 2030. SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung told Reuters last month: "Next year will be the worst year in the industry's history in terms of supply," and added, "We expect customer demand to exceed supply capacity even after 2030."

Samsung Electronics similarly stated during its second-quarter earnings announcement that "after 2029, requests for multi-year supply contracts from large customers requiring the establishment of large-scale AI service infrastructure on a medium- to long-term basis continue." A senior semiconductor industry executive observed: "Big Tech's investments in AI data centers are faster than the pace at which memory companies can expand production capacity," concluding, "The memory boom is likely to prolong beyond expectations."