Natural gas dominates PJM's first reformed interconnection queue, driven by data center demand, shifting away from renewable emphasis.

Natural gas surged to the top in the first round of power projects accepted into PJM Interconnection's reformed interconnection process, capturing nearly half of the more than 200 gigawatts of capacity qualified for study. Battery storage and solar trail significantly behind, according to the latest figures from the grid operator.

This outcome contrasts sharply with three years ago, when PJM, the nation's largest grid operator, stopped accepting new projects to clear its backlog. At that time, more than 90 percent of proposals were solar, wind, and battery storage. Most of those clean energy projects never materialized, stalled in the queue for years until they withdrew, clearing the way for natural gas to surge ahead as demand accelerated.

The current cohort comprises 715 projects totaling 201.5 gigawatts of power—the first group to move through PJM's new "first-ready, first-served" system. This reformed process now requires developers to deposit capital and prove they control a construction site before a project enters the study cycle. The overhaul follows years of efforts by the grid operator to eliminate speculative proposals and expedite viable projects onto a grid already under strain.

Electricity demand is expected to grow by as much as 70 gigawatts by 2038, driven largely by data centers. However, how much of the proposed capacity will actually get built remains unclear. PJM's own figures show that of more than 300 gigawatts of projects studied since 2020, just 51 gigawatts hold interconnection agreements today, with no guarantee all will be completed.

By capacity, the breakdown is stark: natural gas leads at 99.8 gigawatts across 147 projects, followed by battery storage at 60 gigawatts, nuclear at 17.3 gigawatts, solar at 11.8 gigawatts, solar-storage hybrids at 7.5 gigawatts, and wind at 3.9 gigawatts. A catch-all category including biomass, coal, fuel cells, fusion, and methane accounts for just over one gigawatt, with hydro adding 0.07 gigawatts. One gigawatt provides electricity to approximately 750,000 to 1 million homes.

The picture shifts dramatically when measured by project count. Storage leads with 314 proposals, significantly ahead of gas at 147, solar at 117, wind at 61, solar-storage hybrids at 37, and nuclear at 24. The remaining proposals include ten projects in the miscellaneous category and five hydro projects.

"Storage projects are not paired with any particular generation unless they are designated as part of a hybrid resource, which has its own category," said Jeffrey Shields, PJM spokesman. "A battery draws electricity from the grid like any customer to charge and discharges to the grid like any generator."

PJM's release does not specify how much of the proposed 3.9 gigawatts of wind capacity is offshore. Nonetheless, offshore wind remains critical to the clean energy plans of states like Maryland and has been a primary target of the Trump administration. Despite repeated federal attempts to halt East Coast wind projects, offshore developments continue advancing both within and outside PJM's territory.

Under the new rules, projects will undergo review in a one- to two-year process, depending on their impact on the grid. "PJM is encouraged at the number and quality of applications moving through the study process," said Jason Connell, PJM's vice president of planning. "The reformed rules are designed to encourage projects that will get built." The diversity of applications, Connell noted, signals that developers remain eager to build across PJM's territory—which serves all or parts of thirteen states plus Washington, D.C.—as the operator works to meet demand for faster interconnections.

Jon Gordon, a director at the industry group Advanced Energy United, attributed the gas-heavy queue to the earlier failed cycle. The previous queue held 2,700 projects totaling 255 gigawatts, with 95 percent representing clean energy. "A grid operator used to studying a few large plants a year couldn't process thousands of small ones," Gordon explained. Clearing them took four years, during which most projects became unviable. "The whole world had changed—COVID, supply chain disruptions, massive inflation, the Trump administration, you name it. Most withdrew and were never built. It was the energy transition that never was." He characterized the subsequent gas surge as independent power producers capitalizing on "huge opportunity," backed by both the Trump administration and supportive state policies. Yet he cautioned that natural gas plants have seen prices double in the past two years and triple over four years due to supply chain costs, tariffs, and labor demand, making them "very expensive plants to build compared to their clean energy alternatives."

Abe Silverman, an assistant research scholar at Johns Hopkins University's Ralph O'Connor Sustainable Energy Institute, described the gas-tilted queue as evidence of "a gold rush on right now for new gas to serve the other gold rush, the data centers." He noted that PJM itself is signaling a preference for gas-fired resources through its reliability backstop procurements and other channels, particularly as offshore wind is "slowed down by federal policy." Under its reliability backstop mechanism, PJM allows a small number of projects to bypass the normal interconnection queue and connect faster to address gaps between surging demand and available supply.

Silverman cautioned that while the new system should improve on its predecessor, PJM has restructured its queue before "and it hasn't always worked." Three factors will determine materialization, he said: PJM completing its studies, developers obtaining the gas turbines needed for construction, and state siting and permitting processes moving quickly. "Just because we're starting the queue process doesn't mean that these projects are going to be on in the next couple of years," he emphasized. Without addressing the pace of load growth, PJM could face "a period of very high rates" and reliability problems until new generation arrives.

PJM defended the overhaul, noting that the reformed process includes stricter requirements and meaningful readiness deposits at risk as projects advance. "This should weed out speculative projects and result in projects with a higher likelihood of achieving commercial operation," Shields said. Studying projects together allows grid upgrade costs to be "known sooner and shared," Shields added, giving developers more certainty while potentially shaving months off construction timelines and strengthening project viability.

PJM acknowledged that state permitting, local opposition, supply chain backlogs, and financing—factors outside its control—are most likely to derail projects. The operator continues working with public and private stakeholders to reduce these barriers.