The NRDC warns that current US energy policy directions under the Trump administration could eliminate up to 540 GW of projected renewable energy capacity.
An estimated 540 GW of renewable energy capacity could be eliminated under current policy directions, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). “We lose more than half of everything that we expected to be able to build with the combination of market forces and proactive policy,” said Amanda Levin, NRDC’s director of policy analysis.
An August report from Global Energy Monitor identifies 189 GW of gas-fired capacity currently in the announced, pre-construction, and construction phases across the United States—a figure that “nearly doubled” in the first half of the year. However, “uncertainty persists about how and when this capacity gets built.” According to the research firm, “Two-thirds of gas-fired capacity in development globally, and more than half of projects tied to data centers, do not have a named turbine/engine manufacturer,” while “Nearly one-quarter of projects earmarked for data centers do not have a named start year.” Global Energy Monitor noted that “Turbine supply constraints, financing uncertainty, local data center moratoriums, and mounting public opposition leave the true scale of the gas power buildout uncertain.”
Compounding these delays, order backlogs for gas turbines required for combined-cycle plants are pushing developers who need to bring firm power online quickly toward simpler alternatives. Many are turning to simple-cycle or reciprocating engine plants, which “are less efficient than combined-cycle plants and carry higher emissions per unit of electricity generated,” Global Energy Monitor said. Levin emphasized that this operational reality reinforces the NRDC’s position that the Environmental Protection Agency’s gas power plant emissions rule should not be repealed, despite the Trump administration’s stated intention to do so.
“The trend highlights actually the value of these types of standards … which is that the market is not acting in a perfectly rational economic way,” Levin said. “These types of regulations could prevent this type of highly polluting type of power generation by requiring us to think about how we are building out this gas that we're trying to build over the next few years to meet this growing load.”
The NRDC’s analysis also projects significant economic headwinds. Without new renewable generation, the power sector will be forced to “rely more heavily on the existing, higher-cost legacy fossil fuel system.” Consequently, the industry is expected to spend an additional $5 billion to $15 billion on fossil fuels while claiming $45 billion less in Inflation Reduction Act tax incentives compared to the group’s January 2025 Snapshot baseline. These structural shifts will directly impact consumer bills: “By 2035, average household electricity rates are projected to increase by an additional 4.2% to 5.5% nationwide, relative to the January 2025 Snapshot case,” the report concluded.