To own Amazon, you need to believe that AI-driven AWS growth, higher-margin advertising, and a more efficient retail network can outweigh heavy, ongoing infrastructure spend and regulatory friction. The new $10 billion Missouri data center plan underscores the near-term catalyst around AI capacity while also amplifying the biggest current risk: that rising capital intensity and funding costs weigh on cash generation. So far, this project does not materially alter that risk-reward balance.

The $17.5 billion delayed draw term loan Amazon secured in June underlines how management is funding the Missouri campus and the wider AI data center buildout while free cash flow is under pressure. This arrangement keeps the spotlight firmly on whether AWS's capital-intensive expansion can translate into durable, high-margin growth fast enough to reassure investors. Rising AI capex and borrowing could pressure margins and cash flow if the expansion fails to deliver proportional revenue and earnings gains.

Amazon's current narrative projects $1,092 billion in revenue and $149.6 billion in earnings by 2029, supporting a $312.99 fair value estimate—representing 34% upside to the current price.

The Simply Wall St Community has produced 85 fair value estimates on Amazon, with valuations spanning roughly $218 to $450 per share. This wide range reflects the central debate: whether AWS's capital-intensive AI buildout strengthens long-term earnings power or leaves the company more exposed to margin risk and tighter financing. The highest estimates suggest the stock could be worth as much as 93% more than the current price.