Micron's HBM guidance diverges from Wall Street expectations by approximately $2 billion, reflecting HBM demand far exceeding projections.
When Micron Technology releases its third fiscal quarter results after market close on June 24 (Wednesday), these figures will unveil a curious contradiction: according to some sources, the company's own revenue guidance stands at $3.35 billion, conflicting with another expectation of $3.55 billion attributed to management. This discrepancy underscores the extreme demand dynamics in the high-bandwidth memory chip market and the unusually wide range of expectations investors must navigate.
Analysts have actually raised revenue forecasts as high as $3.55 billion, a full $2 billion above the lower guidance. This optimistic outlook rests entirely on HBM—the specialized chips powering artificial intelligence servers. Micron has already sold out its entire 2026 calendar year capacity and is currently accepting orders for 2027, with demand currently exceeding supply by over 50%. The pricing power derived from this scarcity is the engine driving these figures.
Beyond the $3.55 billion revenue figure—which Micron itself describes as record revenue and record profit—the company projects an adjusted gross margin of approximately 81% and adjusted earnings per share of approximately $19.15. These latter two metrics face no disagreement across sources and clearly reflect the earnings leverage HBM delivers. Particularly striking is this gross margin level, which is extraordinary even by semiconductor standards, reflecting Micron's premium pricing power in a scenario where its entire HBM output is pre-sold.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is Micron worth buying?
The market has already priced in this optimism. The stock closed Friday at €991.50, near the all-time high of €1,002.80 set on June 18. Over the past 12 months, the stock has risen approximately 856%. However, the relative strength index stands at 68.1, indicating strong momentum while simultaneously suggesting that the rally has pushed valuations to a level where any disappointment could trigger sharp profit-taking.
Overbought technical conditions collide with the well-known cyclicality of the memory chip industry. During Wednesday's analyst call (expected to occur following the earnings release), even a single cautious comment about 2027 pricing or demand would suffice to trigger a sell-off. The Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate stance for the remainder of this year adds a second headwind for highly valued technology stocks.
Micron's structural advantages remain robust. Industry observers anticipate memory supply shortages will persist through at least 2027, providing the company with multi-year tailwinds independent of any single quarter's performance. Management has emphasized that the ramp-up of new fabs in Taiwan and Singapore, along with the forthcoming transition to HBM4, are critical catalysts for sustaining this advantage.
Yet in an industry where pricing can shift instantaneously, the June 24 earnings call will prove as critical as the numbers themselves. Every detail regarding inventory levels, customer commitments, and HBM4 certification progress will face intense scrutiny. The stock's astronomical ascent means that even a flawless earnings report may fail to satisfy investors who have already priced in perfection.
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